2024 Tour Championship picks, odds: Expert predictions, favorites to win the FedEx Cup Playoffs from the betting field

A great PGA Tour season comes to a close this weekend, as the final stage of the 2024 FedEx Cup Playoffs will be held at East Lake Golf Club. The 2024 Tour Championship will feature a massive $25 million winner’s share for the person who finishes at the top of the leaderboard, and that person will not only take home a large sum of money, but also an important trophy as one of the top golfers of the year.

There are hardly any two players with more at stake than Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele. The former has had a whirlwind season with six PGA Tour victories, including a Masters and Players Championship, and an Olympic gold medal. The latter followed up his first career major win at the PGA Championship with his second title at The Open Championship two months later. Both have had incredible seasons so far, and while Scheffler may be in pole position for PGA Tour Player of the Year, Schauffele’s win could tighten the race considerably.

Which of these two accomplishments would be more impressive? Our CBS Sports experts debate it below. You can also take a look FedEx Cup Playoffs PrimerThat will include the final 30 men in the field and details on what will happen over the next 72 holes at East Lake.

Scheffler (-10) enters as the leader, while Schauffele (-8) sits two strokes back. Behind them, the top 10 standings entering East Lake include Hideki Matsuyama (-7), Keegan Bradley (-6), Ludvig Aberg (-5) and the quartet of Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns and Patrick Cantlay (-4). The rest of the top 30 are 7-10 strokes behind Scheffler with 72 holes left.

The ranked leaderboard provides advantages to golfers who have had great seasons up to this point, but the benefits are not so significant that players lower on the leaderboard cannot make a run. Thus, it’s possible that the best-performing player at the Tour Championship will not be at the top of the leaderboard when play ends on Sunday, but with so much money on the line — the top nine will all earn $2 million or more this weekend — every spot in the standings matters.

So, what’s going to happen at East Lake? Let’s take a look at the full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts, as we attempt to predict who will win — and what will happen — in the final PGA Tour event of the season.

Expert picks, predictions for the 2024 Tour Championship

Kyle Porter, senior golf writer

Winner – Xander Schauffele (5/2): It seems pretty clear to me that Schauffele is going to win this event. He has played brilliantly on this golf course with a 3.55 true-strokes-gained mark, which is almost a shot better per round than the next best in the field (played at least eight rounds). Plus, he is in a better mental space than Scottie Scheffler. A Schauffele win would make the PGA Tour Player of the Year race even more interesting since he would have won two majors and the FedEx Cup, but potentially No Earn that respect.

Sleeper – Rory McIlroy (18-1): Absolutely demolished East Lake, and at 4 under, he’s playing from a position where he’s won this event before. (He beat Scheffler six back at the start of the 2022 event.) The golf hasn’t been consistently good since the U.S. Open, but I’ll take 16-1 odds that he gets something going at a place he loves to play and has to be completely focused on this one week to win.

Top 10 guys who won’t win – Scottie Scheffler: Is that bold enough for you? I just don’t see it happening with Scheffler. He’s never won a FedEx Cup Playoff event, and he’s coming off his worst week in two years at last week’s BMW Championship. It’s clear he doesn’t enjoy these playoffs, and there are too many horses behind him.

Biggest Jump on the Leaderboard – Tommy Fleetwood: This is a good place for Fleetwood to play. He is 22nd in the standings and will be ninth behind Scheffler. It will allow him to play with a lot more freedom, and he has recently had three consecutive top 25 finishes – two of them top five – since missing the cut at the Open in July.

Biggest Fall Down Leaderboard – Keegan Bradley: Aside from Scheffler, Bradley would suffer the biggest drop. He has fallen to fourth in the FedEx Cup standings, which is not in keeping with his performance in 2024. While it would be an incredible story for him to win the FedEx Cup, it’s more likely that it goes the other way.

Big achievement with the win – Scheffler or Schauffele? This is a difficult question, but I believe Scheffler None of them, however, have won the FedEx Cup before. A year of eight wins, with the Masters, Players, Olympic gold medal and FedEx Cup title, may never be matched again, which is what’s at stake for Scheffler this week at East Lake.

Patrick MacDonald, golf writer

Winner – Xander Schauffele (5/2): Restoration, no restoration, it doesn’t matter for Schauffele at East Lake. While the golf course will be different from years past, the bones are the same. Schauffele won in his debut as a rookie in 2017, had the lowest score in 2020 and tied with Viktor Hovland in the same category last year, but finished second in the FedEx Cup. He is the best player in the game, and now it’s time for him to win a silver medal at the end of the week.

Sleeper – Rory McIlroy (18-1): It’s hard to say what a sleeper looks like in this tournament, because of the difference in early scoring, but McIlroy needs to make up six strokes on Scheffler. Most importantly, Rory has completed the biggest comeback in FedEx Cup Playoff history, and he did it from exactly that many strokes behind two years ago. He has a little tougher competition this year, but after underperforming in the majors – including a heartbreaking performance at the US Open – and the Olympics, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him dominate once again in Atlanta.

Top 10 guys who won’t win – Scottie Scheffler: It’s the end of the year, and I’m feeling adventurous, so why not? Scheffler entered the Tour Championship with a two-stroke lead the past two seasons and finished second and sixth in those respective tournaments. I’m not counting too much on his performance at the BMW Championship, but with a sore back, just behind Schauffele and a dislike of this format, I can see the world’s No. 1 coming into pole position at East Lake at 0-3 odds.

Biggest Jump on the Leaderboard – Billy Horschel: Hovland could be thrown in at 2 under here, but let’s take Horschel one stroke ahead at 1 under. The 2014 FedEx Cup champion has been on a roll over the past month and has posted three consecutive top 10s before a stellar showing at the BMW Championship. His tee-to-green game is back, and his putting has always been capable of sending him over the top. He’s a bubble boy for the U.S. Presidents Cup team, and Horschel would like nothing more than to make an impression on captain Jim Furyk with his play at East Lake.

Biggest Fall on the Leaderboard – Keegan Bradley: The BMW Championship winner started fourth at 6 under, but we’ll not be prisoners of the moment here. Bradley has had a good season — not great — with only three top-10 finishes and two top-20 finishes so far. His record at East Lake isn’t great, and with players like Ludwig Aberg, Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa right behind him, I can see him heading in the wrong direction.

Big achievement with the win – Scheffler or Schauffele? Schauffele had an incredible major championship season, but Scheffler has put together a historic campaign; the FedEx Cup would suit him well. A win would rank him seventh on the PGA Tour and tie him with the totals of Tiger Woods in 2007 and Tom Watson in 1980. And that doesn’t include his Olympic gold medal from Paris. Scheffler would tie Jordan Spieth and Jason Day with 13 career PGA Tour wins – a fun little subtitle.

Adam Silverstein, Editorial Director

Winner – Xander Schauffele (5/2): Scheffler has been the best player in 2024, but Schauffele is undoubtedly the best – despite the fact that Scottie outperformed Zander in Paris at the Olympics. While East Lake has been restored, Schauffele feels at home in Atlanta and has dominated the course at every opportunity. A two-shot deficit through nine holes is easy enough to overcome, let alone a 72, and while I have faith in others this week, I wouldn’t trust anyone else at this point in the season.

Sleeper — Viktor Hovland (66-1): The defending champion needs to make up two strokes on Scheffler every round; that’s a lot to ask, but he has the power to do it. The St. Jude Championship reminded us that a player of Hovland’s caliber never gets away from him. Despite a mediocre start at the BMW Championship, the ball striking continued to shine. He comes into East Lake with seven consecutive rounds in the 60s.

Top 10 guys who won’t win – Keegan Bradley: It’s been easier to root for Bradley lately, especially if you’re a fan of American golf and watched “Full Swing,” in which you saw visual evidence of his devastation at not being selected for last year’s Ryder Cup team. Bradley coming out on top and winning the BMW Championship last week was a big deal, but his level of play did not indicate he was someone who could be trusted to compete for weeks on end against this level of competition — let alone consecutive wins in the final two tournaments of the season.

Biggest Jump on the Leaderboard – Billy Horschel: There’s a level of bias here because I always like to see my teammates in orange and blue succeed, but this has been a great end to the season for Horschel. His performance in the FedEx Cup a decade ago was incredible, and as Patrick mentioned, his potential spot in the Presidents Cup is at stake if he plays the best version of his game this week. Golf is more fun when Horschel plays well, even if his game isn’t what excites modern fans.

Biggest Drop on the Leaderboard – Wyndham Clark: Although he has performed well in the latter stages of the season, Clarke has not been at his best under pressure this season. He has missed the cut in three of the four major championships and finished T56 at the US Open. With a Presidents Cup bid already confirmed, Clarke will only be playing for the money – it’s certainly tempting, don’t get it wrong, but the motivation factor is not quite the same as others in the field.

Big achievement with the win – Scheffler or Schauffele? It absolutely must be Scheffler. While Schauffele has been exceptional throughout this campaign, Scheffler was on his way to a successful season before his arrest at the PGA Championship. He has been relatively up and down since that tournament and his dominance in signature events carried him through the year. The Olympic gold medal was a crowning achievement for him; the FedEx Cup would be like hanging a big bag full of money on his shoulder. It wouldn’t count towards his record-setting season total, but the $25 million bonus on top of what he’s already earned would be something special. It would also earn him PGA Tour Player of the Year honors, which he probably already has won. Seven wins on the PGA Tour hasn’t been achieved in 17 years.