49ers enter 2024 season with legitimate concerns amid Super Bowl aspirations; last chance to win title?

This is the eighth installment of Thursday Thoughts, which looks at major topics across the NFL landscape. We’ve waited and waited for some clarity, now it’s time to assess where the San Francisco 49ers stand now and in the future.

The offseason and preseason are usually a time of joy. This guy is in the best shape of his life… This guy has lost a lot of weight… This guy has gained a good amount of weight… This guy has started a new diet… This guy is back from injury and looking better than ever… This guy is ready to break out… When there is a zero in the loss column, the possibilities become endless.

However, when it comes to the 49ers, things aren’t so great. This guy (Christian McCaffrey) is dealing with a calf strain and has barely practiced. These guys (Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams) also aren’t practicing because they’re unhappy with their contracts, and that means this guy (Brock Purdy) has had a less fun preseason without his normally great support system.

It’s not just the big names. These guys (linebacker Dre Greenlaw and cornerback Ambry Thomas) won’t be back until late in the season. Another guy (guard Aaron Banks) is in the running to be ready for Week 1 after hurting his pinky. These guys (offseason edge-rusher additions Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos) suffered knee injuries in consecutive preseason plays — albeit minor ones — and another guy at the position (Drake Jackson) is already out for the season.

Every team deals with injuries, and it could be argued that bruises and scratches now are better than injuries later.

But not every team deals with the situation the 49ers are dealing with with Aiyuk and Williams, and dealing with it right now — while the 49ers are in the Super Bowl window and so close to success — is close to the worst-case scenario.

Ayuk’s dilemma has been going on for months, well before that Requested trade in mid-July. There have been several times that a trade seemed imminent — the Patriots reportedly met with 49ers’ trade demands and Aiyuk’s contract demandsBut it did not yield any results – and there were many times when There was real momentum in San Francisco,

General manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan both expressed their thoughts. The sharpest words on the situation On Wednesday, Shanahan said Aiyuk had been medically cleared and was therefore expected to practice, and Lynch added, “At some point, you’ve got to play.”

Aiyuk didn’t practice.

This has been an offseason that has seen the wide receiver market boom. Each of the top six highest-paid wide receivers based on average annual value signed a deal this offseason, and each is making over $28 million. Aiyuk, playing in the fifth year of his rookie deal, is due to get a little over $14 million.

There’s no doubt he’s far more valuable than that. Aiyuk is coming off a Second-Team All-Pro season in which he caught 75 passes for 1,342 yards. Only George Pickens averaged more than Aiyuk’s 17.9 yards per reception. His vertical abilities added an element that made an already great offense historically good. Then add blocking, no small aspect in this offense. Aiyuk earned Pro Football Focus’ fifth-highest run-blocking grade among wide receivers. It’s already hard to find a wide receiver in the passing game as good as Aiyuk who’s also willing to block. But Aiyuk is more than willing. He’s excellent.

Meanwhile, Williams is at the pinnacle of blocking prowess. In four years with the 49ers, he has ranked first, first, first and second in PFF’s annual tackle grade. Even at age 36, he’s a force to be reckoned with. He ranks No. 3. Pete Prisco’s Top 100 Players of 2024 ListOver the past two seasons, no team has rushed for more yards or gained more yards before first contact when running behind its left tackle than the 49ers.

Unlike Aiyuk, Williams is among the highest-paid players at his position, thanks to a six-year, $130 million contract that began in 2021. However, like Aiyuk, there isn’t much security. San Francisco can opt out of Williams’ contract after this season. His $22 million and $32 million salaries in 2025 and 2026, respectively, are not guaranteed. Williams reportedly Willing to sit out the start of the seasonAnd here’s a precedent: He reached an agreement with Washington by the end of October in 2019.

There is no doubt that Shanahan runs a great system, but there is also no doubt that he has great players to help him. Neither can thrive without the other. Therefore, the absence of Aiyuk and/or Williams will be an issue.

The second and fourth lines are a bit more advanced and ubiquitous than the first and third lines, so I’ll put it to you this way: Using expected points added per game…

• With Aiyuk and Williams on the field, these numbers would have been the best in the NFL. After all, the 49ers led the league in this category.
• With at least one player off the field, that number would have been 10th, the same as the Seahawks.
• With both players out, that number would have been 29, slightly worse than the Steelers.

Rest assured the decline won’t be as steep this year. Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds (if not premier offensive mind) in the NFL, and the 49ers drafted Ricky Piersall in the first round. They will adjust. There is a lot of talent on the staff and roster. But SportsLine projects Significant decline If Aiyuk leaves. And it’s no coincidence that the two games Williams missed – against the Vikings and Bengals – and the game he mostly missed (the Ravens) were among the team’s worst offensive performances and resulted in the 49ers losing three of their five games all season.

The 49ers can’t let this year go to waste. No team has won more regular-season games over the past two seasons, and only the Chiefs have won more playoff games over the past five seasons. Williams, Floyd, George Kittle and Javon Hargrave are all over 30, and McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel — premier, injury-prone playmakers — are both 28. It’s not going to get any better than that.

But more than that, this is the last year Purdy is cheap. He’s worth a little more than $1 million against the cap. He’s the cheapest quarterback on his team, trailing backups Joshua Dobbs and Brandon Allen. In terms of cash spent, the 49ers have the second-cheapest quarterback room in the NFL, according to Spotrac, allowing them to hire the most expensive running back and defensive lineman, the third-most expensive wide receiver and the sixth-most expensive tight end. The former Mr. Irrelevant becoming the starting quarterback, and leading a historically efficient offense while playing at a very low price, is a miracle.

But the 49ers will have to pay Purdy next season, when they will have a number of free agents. To start, there’s Greenlaw, Charvarius Ward, Demoodore Lenoir and Talanoa Hufanga, the latter two having far outperformed their contracts. If they can’t get a contract or a trade, Aiyuk joins that list as well. That’s with a lot of money committed to the positions listed in the previous paragraph. Very, very tough decisions will have to be made, and that’s what makes this year so important.

Perhaps the best comparison is the team that has stood in the 49ers’ way twice: the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes left the 49ers for Super Bowl LIV when he was still on his rookie deal. He got a great deal months later, and the Chiefs had to make similarly tough decisions. Sammy Watkins and Eric Fisher were out of the team by the end of the 2020 season. Frank Clark, Tyreek Hill, Tyrann Mathieu and Anthony Hitchens — the team’s four biggest cap hits for 2021 — all left soon after. Orlando Brown Jr. left for the Bengals last offseason.

The biggest difference, of course, is Mahomes. The Chiefs’ offensive game was nothing special last year, and yet in crucial moments, it was Mahomes and only Mahomes. It’s always Mahomes. If he wasn’t, we’d be talking about the 49ers very differently. Though Purdy has been a revelation, he’s not Mahomes. The very supporting cast that Purdy is likely to lose — just as Mahomes lost his — currently elevates Purdy considerably. How he’ll perform without it is a question. Meanwhile, we’ve seen how Mahomes dealt with his worst supporting cast. He won the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs have also done a great job of drafting to replace lost pieces. Several cheap, homegrown defenders (Al’Jarius Sneed, Trent McDuffie George Karlaftis, Willie Gay Jr., Nick Bolton, Michael Danna, Juan Thornhill) emerged as solid starters, and Sneed and McDuffie became stars. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has done a great job. Last year’s offense featured Pro Bowlers Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Isiah Pacheco and Rashy Rice, who were drafted and developed by Kansas City.

The same can’t be said for the 49ers. The 2021 class, led by Trey Lance, had some late hits that are already serving as a boon. But as the AP’s Josh Lubow pointed out, Purdy is a saving grace for the 2022 draft.

In 2023, the 49ers don’t have a pick until the third round, and the early returns on that class haven’t been particularly noteworthy. San Francisco plans to start six players drafted from 2021. Kansas City will likely double that. Put it all together — the quarterbacks, the drafting, the fact that one franchise has three Super Bowl trophies in the last five years and the other has zero — and you’ll see why Kansas City’s dynasty seems endless while San Francisco’s juggernaut, at the moment, seems unshakable.

Aside from the status of Aiyuk and Williams, the 49ers have done the right thing as a team with Super Bowl aspirations. They brought back Jauan Jennings, a great Super Bowl player, and does all the invaluable dirty work. They strengthened the defensive line and edge units, added secondary depth and replaced coordinators after the defense quietly slipped from elite to merely good (and, in some areas, not even good). They drafted a first-round wide receiver and a third-round guard who could start. With Williams and Aiyuk, there’s no reason to doubt them as a true top-tier contender.

But without Aiyuk and/or Williams, those expectations take a significant hit. In a year when so much is at stake, it’s a risk the 49ers don’t want to take, but it’s a risk they’re getting closer to taking every day.

More Thursday ideas:
Part – 1: Can Caleb Williams and the Bears live up to high expectations?
Part 2: Is this the final performance of the Cowboys as we know them?
Part 3: How will quarterbacks returning from season-ending injuries perform?
Part 4: What happens in the AFC North, the league’s best and most interesting conference?
Part 5: Is it breakout time for the new-look Bills?
Part 6: What impact will the big-name running backs have on their new teams?
Part 7: Which young quarterbacks will take their teams to the next level?