Can the Mariners turn it around? Five reasons why Seattle can make the MLB playoffs after firing Scott Servais

The collapse has been terrible. On June 18, the Seattle Mariners were 44-31 and 10 games ahead in the AL West. In the two months since, the Mariners are 21-33 and have gone from 10 games ahead in the division to 5.5 games behind. Seattle just completed a 1-8 road trip and apparently, that was the last straw. Longtime manager Scott Servais was fired Thursday during the team’s holiday breakDan Wilson, who played for the Mariners for 12 years from 1994–2005, was appointed the new manager.

“We believe we need a new voice in the clubhouse,” GM Jerry Dipoto said in a statement. “Dan knows our team and has been a key member of our organization working with players at every level for the last 11 years. He is highly respected inside and outside our clubhouse and we are confident he will do a great job leading our group and moving forward during the final six weeks of the season. I want to thank Scott for all of his efforts in Seattle over the last nine seasons. He has poured his passion into the team and our community and I know I speak on behalf of the entire Mariners organization in thanking him for his hard work.”

Wilson is the new full-time manager. He is not interim. This is his job moving forward. Wilson was inducted into the Mariners Hall of Fame in 2012 and has spent more than a decade serving in a variety of on-field roles within the organization, in addition to some broadcast work. Most recently, he was a special assistant for player development. The Mariners are replacing longtime catcher Servais with a veteran baseball player who is already familiar with the team and its players.

According to FanGraphs, the Mariners have seen their postseason odds fall from a season-best 91.7% on June 18 to 13.0% entering play on Friday. Seattle is 7.5 games back of the third wild-card spot. It’s very likely the AL West will send only one team to the postseason this year. To get there, the Mariners will have to beat the Houston Astros and win the division. Here are five reasons to think Seattle can get its season back on track and return to the postseason.

1. The new manager’s honeymoon

In recent years, we’ve seen many teams improve their play immediately after a managerial change. The best example of this is the Philadelphia Phillies, who started 22-29 in 2022 under Joe Girardi, changed managers in early June, then went 65-46 under Rob Thomson and won the National League pennant. That same season, the Toronto Blue Jays started 46-42 under Charlie Montoyo, then went 46-28 under John Schneider after a midseason managerial change.

Not every managerial change comes with a sudden improvement — the 2022 Los Angeles Angels went 27-29 under Maddon, then 46-60 under Phil Nevin — but sometimes it does, sure. The possible reasons are endless. A managerial change hurts players badly and that’s a warning, a new voice motivates players better, the new manager has better ways of deploying guys on the roster, etc. The new manager’s honeymoon is a thing that happens sometimes, and the Mariners need it.

2. Their rotation is very good

I think it’s extremely disappointing for the Mariners and their fans to know that there are no truly elite teams in either league (no team is on pace to win more than 96 games) and if they find a way to sneak into the postseason, the Mariners will be just as dangerous as any other team. Their rotation, especially the front four of Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Brice Miller, is very good. Seattle will have a pitching advantage over almost any team in a short postseason series.

Here are the stats for the club’s starting pitchers on Thursday’s off day:

It’s the entire rotation, too. The No. 5 starter, the spot starter, everybody. Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby and Miller are averaging 5.96 innings per start and have combined for 11.8 of the 13.6 WAR. Those four will be Seattle’s postseason rotation, in whatever order. Get those four guys in by October and the Mariners will be very dangerous indeed.

With starting pitching like that, you have a chance to win almost every night. During that 1-8 road trip, the Mariners lost five games by three or fewer runs. They were in most games. The offense gives them little margin for error — the Mariners rank 27th in runs scored per game — but the pitching is so good that the Mariners will be in games most nights. This is arguably the best rotation in baseball, and if Seattle makes a run to the postseason, the starting pitchers could be the biggest reason why.

3. Crawford is coming back

Shortstop J.P. Crawford, the Mariners’ unofficial captain, has been out of action since injuring his right hand on an errant pitch on July 22. Crawford hasn’t had a great year — .204/.299/.347 with nine home runs in 77 games — but compared to the players who replaced him, he looks like Cal Ripken Jr. Fill-in shortstops Dylan Moore and Leo Rivas are hitting .195 with a .588 OPS since Crawford’s last game, plus they’ve been downgraded defensively.

The good news, though, is that Crawford has started swinging the bat again and, according to My Northwest, could begin a minor-league rehab assignment as soon as this weekend. He’s getting closer to a return. The Mariners begin a six-game homestand on Friday. Could Crawford join them and then be activated next Thursday when they head out on their next road trip? That’s probably the best-case scenario. The point is that Crawford is making progress, and he brings a lot to the field and the clubhouse. The Mariners need him.

4. Short-term program is favorable

On paper, the Mariners have a tougher remaining schedule than the Astros, though the difference isn’t huge. FanGraphs says Seattle’s remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .504. Houston is at .495. That’s the difference between an 80-win pace and an 82-win pace, so yeah, not huge. That’s likely the case for the full season, though. In the short term, the schedule is advantageous to the Mariners. Of course, no wins are guaranteed, but the schedule matches up well for Seattle.

The Astros begin a four-game series with the Orioles on Thursday in Baltimore (HOU 6, BAL 0). They’ll play three games with the Phillies in Philadelphia next week, then they’ll play four games against the Kansas City Royals. The O’s and Phillies might be the two best teams in baseball, and the Royals are a hungry team trying to secure a wild-card spot, if not overtake the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central. Plus, there are no off days. The Astros haven’t had an off day since last Thursday and they won’t have another off day until Sept. 3. That’s a lot of games against a lot of good teams, with no rest in the schedule.

Meanwhile, the Mariners are at home to play three games with the San Francisco Giants and three with the Tampa Bay Rays, starting Friday. They will then head out to play three games with the Angels and four with the Oakland Athletics. Seattle had an off-day on Thursday and will have another off-day next Thursday. The Giants and Rays aren’t easy, but compared to the Astros’ upcoming schedule, the Mariners have a much more favorable schedule. Get a few wins here and there over the next two weeks, and then you can start to see a path toward October.

5. They still have a series left with Houston

Specifically, at Minute Maid Park on September 23-25. This is the second-to-last series of the regular season. The Mariners won two of three in Houston in May and are 6-4 against the Astros this season. With one more win, the Mariners would capture the tiebreaker, meaning they wouldn’t need to finish ahead of the Astros. They would only need to tie them to win the division. The Astros won the AL West via the tiebreaker last year. This isn’t a far-fetched possibility.

The Mariners have 34 games left. That’s not a lot of games, but they have enough time to stop this two-month bad play, get some wins and put themselves in a position to capture the AL West during that final series at Minute Maid Park. That’s the goal. Get within three games of the Astros in that series. Do that and the Mariners will mathematically control their own destiny in the AL West. Going from 10 games to 5.5 games behind some or the otherHowever, this deficit is not so big that it cannot be covered.