Class of 2024 college football starting QBs analyzed by star rating and transfer status

College football fans who haven’t followed the onslaught of national transfer news since the 2023 season ended will be in for some surprises as they gear up for Week 1 action. 36 of the 68 Power Four teams (including Notre Dame) are expected to have a new starting quarterback.

Of these 36 potential new starters, 27 have transferred in their first season with their new program, and 20 of those come from other power conference schools. Overall, 44 of the 68 potential starters have transferred at some point in their careers.

Former Oregon and Texas Tech quarterback Tyler Shough now leading Louisville’s offense? He certainly is. He’s one of the few seventh-year seniors — members of the 2018 high school recruiting class — who’s still around. The No. 1 recruit that year? Fourth-year NFL pro Trevor Lawrence.

Like Shaw, Oklahoma State’s Alan Bowman is also at his third Power Four school, as he enters his second year as the Cowboys’ primary quarterback after stints at Texas Tech and Michigan. When Bowman and Shaw were true freshmen in 2018, Nebraska’s starting quarterback Dylan Raiola was in the seventh grade.

The elimination of transfer restrictions — as well as the easing of redshirt rules and the extra season of eligibility granted amid the COVID-19 pandemic — has produced a crop of college football quarterbacks that now spans a generational divide.

Breakdown of the 2024 Power Four QBs

*Denotes expected starter according to school’s depth chart/247Sports insiders.

Representation of seven classes

Cam Rising (Utah), Bowman (Oklahoma State) and Shaw (Louisville) are still involved from the class of 2018. So is BYU’s Gerry Bohannon, who is competing with Jake Retzlaff for the Cougars’ starting job. On the other side is Raiola, a five-star prospect from the class of 2024 who is set to be the only true freshman starter at a Power Four school to begin the season. However, 67.6% of projected Power Four starting quarterbacks are in Year 3, 4 or 5 of their college careers.

Power Four starting QB recruiting classes:
2024: 1
2023: 8
2022: 12
2021: 17
2020: 17
2019: 10
2018: 3

Segmentation by Recruitment Star Rating

Six of the eight former five-star prospects who began the season as a Power Four starting quarterback are in their first, second or third season of college football. The only former five-stars from the class of 2021 or earlier are class of 2021 prospect Quinn Ewers (Texas) and class of 2020 prospect DJ Uiagalelei (Florida State).

In contrast, all six starters who were formerly two-star prospects or lower are veterans coming from the class of 2021 or earlier. Each of them traveled through the FCS, Group of Five or junior college ranks. Given the freedom to develop and move, players like Minnesota’s Max Brosmer – More information about him here — and Miami’s Cam Ward have carved out prominent Power Four roles.

247Sports High School Star Power Four QB Ratings:
Five stars: 8
Four star: 25
Three stars: 29
Two stars or less: 6

Average CBS Sports 134 preseason rankings based on the starting QB’s high school star ratings:
Two stars or less: 53.3
Three stars: 41.4
Four stars: 39.9
Five stars: 15.6

It’s no surprise that teams with more highly touted quarterbacks receive higher rankings on average in the preseason CBS Sports 134 rankings. Teams that can attract five-star quarterbacks are typically also programs that can land elite talent at other positions as well, and those teams tend to do well.

Transfer-heavy group

Of the 68 projected Power Four starters, 30 are from the class of 2020 or earlier. Those players are in their fifth, sixth or seventh season of college football. Only three of those 30 are playing at the school where they began their careers. They are Carson Beck (Georgia), Jalon Daniels (Kansas) and Garrett Green (West Virginia).

Projected Power Four starting QBs who have moved at some point:
Transferred: 44
Never moved: 24

Where the starters who transferred to Power Four schools came from:
Another power conference school: 34
Group of five, FCS or less: 10

Upward bond

Seven of the 10 projected Power Four starters who transferred from a lower level of college football are in their first season with their new program. They are:

*Not officially named starter

Details of the conference

The quarterback breakdown varies from conference to conference. For example, 14 of the Big Ten’s 18 projected starting quarterbacks have transferred into the league. In contrast, only eight of the SEC’s 16 projected starters have transferred out of the conference.

The starting quarterbacks who transferred this year:
SEC: 4 out of 16 (25%)
Big 12: 4 of 16 (25%)
Big Ten: 9 of 18 (50%)
ACC: 9 out of 17 (52.9%)

the starting QB who has Sometimes Transferred:
SEC: 8 out of 16 (50%)
Big 12: 9 of 16 (56.3%)
ACC: 12 out of 17 (70.6%)
Big Ten: 14 of 18 (77.8%)

Returning starter at quarterback:
Big 12: 11 of 16 (68.8%)
SEC: 8 out of 16 (50%)
ACC: 8 out of 17 (47.1%)
Big Ten: 5 of 18 (27.8%)

Former 4/5 Star Prospects:
SEC: 10 out of 16 (62.5%)
ACC: 10 out of 17 (58.8%)
Big Ten: 9 of 18 (50%)
Big 12: 4 of 16 (25%)

where do they come from?

Texas and California produced 41.2% of the projected Power Four starting quarterbacks this year. Overall, 24 different states and Canada produced projected P4 quarterback starters.

Power Four starting quarterbacks by home state
Texas: 17
California: 11
Georgia: 7
Florida: 5
Louisiana: 3
Mississippi: 3
Illinois: 2
Kansas: 2
Nevada: 2
Alabama: 1
Arizona: 1
Canada: 1
Connecticut: 1
Hawaii: 1
Michigan: 1
Missouri: 1
New Jersey: 1
New Mexico: 1
North Carolina: 1
Ohio: 1
Oregon: 1
Pennsylvania: 1
South Carolina: 1
Utah: 1
Virginia: 1