Francisco Lindor’s MVP case: Why the Mets superstar deserves the conversation, even if he can’t beat Shohei Ohtani

Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor is having possibly the best season of his career and an MVP-caliber season. Despite that and playing on a team in the biggest sports market, he is still underrated.

Prior to the 2021 season, the four-time All-Star was traded to the Mets along with Carlos Carrasco, as a package of players including Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario headed back to Cleveland. Earlier that spring, Lindor signed a 10-year, $341 million extension with the Mets. He then had the worst season of his career, hitting .230 with a 100 OPS+ and 3.0 WAR.

In 2022, the Guardians won the AL Central. Jimenez was an All-Star and combined with Rosario to produce 11.6 WAR. Lindor was making a lot more money than both of them and despite finishing ninth in NL MVP voting for a team that won 101 games, there was a lot of talk about a trade and his salary.

Maybe the effects of that bad year are still there, causing him to be underrated. Maybe it’s the nature of fans. Shohei Ohtani is on lockdown MVP right now and a minor injury can’t take him down. But Lindor deserves a mention in the discussion and may have the strongest claim for second place.

Overall, Lindor is hitting .269/.339/.487, good for a career-high 134 OPS+. He has 34 doubles, 27 homers, 78 RBI (primarily from the leadoff spot, that’s a big number), 89 runs, 25 stolen bases and 5.8 WAR. Among NL players, he trails only Ohtani (6.6) and Ketel Marte (6.0) in WAR. I’m sure many will balk at the “low” batting average, but .269 is 25 points above the league average.

Plus, playing every day is of great value when you perform at the level Lindor has. He has played in all 131 games and is leading the pack in both plate appearances and at-bats.

Across the overall NL leaderboard, Lindor ranks in the top 10 in runs (third), hits (fifth), total bases (third), doubles (third), home runs (fifth), steals (seventh), OPS+ (eighth), extra-base hits (second), times on base (fifth) and win probability (eighth).

We shouldn’t rely solely on WAR — which is why I’m not — but Lindor scoring so well is a good example of what a great all-around player he is. That said, it’s not just about aggression.

The defensive value is immense. Lindor obviously plays one of the most important and challenging positions on the field at shortstop. He has only made 11 errors in all his chances, which is good for a solid .981 fielding percentage. This statistic alone doesn’t cover everything as there is no range component. Factor in the above average out range and Lindor ranks as the eighth best defender in all of baseball. This is on Baseball Savant, as is fielding run value where Lindor rates as the ninth best defender in baseball.

Base running is also a plus for Lindor. We can look at stolen bases, where he is on track to steal over 30 and possibly the highest of his career (31 is his career high, set last season). He has only been caught stealing four times, which is an 86% success rate, while the league average is 78%. Also, extra bases taken can be a good measure of value on base. That is, reaching third from first on a single, scoring from second on a single, and scoring from first on a double. Lindor is at 52%, compared to the league average of 43%.

Also, sometimes voters want to include a team component. That is, has this player elevated his team into contention? Lindor’s rise this season has coincided with his team’s emergence as a contender. The Mets were 11 games below .500 as of June 2, sitting at 24-35. Since then, they are 44-28, second in the NL behind the Diamondbacks. During this stretch, Lindor has been a catalyst, hitting .302/.376/.560 with 21 doubles, 18 home runs, 49 RBI and 56 runs in 72 games.

The overall picture shows a superstar who is doing everything well and doing some things at a high level. His team is competitive, he plays every day and is posting a career year. Lindor has finished in the top 10 in MVP voting five times before, though he has never finished higher than fifth.

And yet, it seems he can’t win the award. Lindor has every chance of finishing the best of his career, maybe even finishing second to the historically good Ohtani. Hopefully that will dispel the stink of the chatter about the Mets clearly winning the trade, his high salary and supposedly “low” batting average, even if he doesn’t go home with the hardware. He really is one of the best all-around players in baseball.