Jake Paul vs Mike Perry fight predictions, odds, preview, undercard, start time, expert picks

When Jake Paul meets Mike Perry on Saturday, he’ll do so on the heels of a big fight with Mike Tyson in November. At least that’s what Paul has suggested. Whether or not it’s true Still to be seen – and that depends entirely on whether or not Perry can pull off the upset.

It’s a risk for Paul to take this fight. Definitely. While Perry bowed out of the UFC (after a promising start as a fan-friendly brawler) with a 3-7 record in his last 10 bouts in the promotion, he has found new life as the dominant star of the Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship. Along with finding his way in BKFC, Perry has quelled many personal demons This seemed to be taking his life in a disastrous direction.

Perry has found success in BKFC by hurting opponents with ungloved shots, leaving them cut, swollen and otherwise crippled, and has compiled a 5-0 record.

Still, Paul has had a decent boxing career fighting former UFC fighters. While he has occasionally experimented with facing a “real boxer,” beating a few club fighters and losing a mildly controversial split decision against Tommy Fury, most of Paul’s meaningful fights have come against men like Tyron Woodley (twice), Ben Askren, Nate Diaz and Anderson Silva. Now after years of dedicated boxing training, Paul has outmatched and out-matched all men who have entered more or less the same dedicated boxing fight camp.

Paul has also benefited from being the bigger man in those bouts. While Paul has fought at the cruiserweight limit, or at least at a catchweight above the 175-pound light heavyweight limit in boxing, all of his prior UFC opponents have been career welterweights (170 pounds) and middleweights (185) in the UFC, though Silva did compete in a handful of bouts at 205 pounds.

Like his previous opponents, Perry was a welterweight in the UFC and has fought at 175 and 185 pounds in BKFC, being physically smaller at 185 pounds, yet is fully equipped to fight bare-knuckle.

Paul will have all the physical advantages in this fight, he will be three inches taller, have a five-inch reach advantage and he will have a considerable weight advantage for this 200-pound bout. The weight factor in this fight is exaggerated, as Paul weighed over 200 pounds for the heavyweight bout with Tyson, which was postponed due to the 58-year-old Tyson’s ulcers and Paul had to struggle to find a replacement opponent to keep the July 20 date intact.

Paul decided to take the risk of facing Perry, who brings an aggression that Paul has not faced in his boxing career yet. Now he has to navigate choppy waters with a very aggressive opponent who has found his groove in big moments in recent years.

“That’s what I do. I’m here to fight. I like taking risks and doing big events,” Paul said at his final press conference this week. “Mike Tyson called and was concerned that this fight could jeopardize the biggest fight of my career. That puts pressure on me and I like that. I’m not slowing down for anybody. Mike Perry isn’t going to stop me. I’m on my way to a world championship. I’m not slowing down for anybody.”

Before we get to predictions and expert picks on the main event, let’s take a closer look at the odds for the main card.

Paul vs. Perry fight card, odds

• Jake Paul -425 vs. Mike Perry +300, Cruiserweight
• Amanda Serrano -4000 vs. Stevie Morgan +1500, junior welterweight
• Ashton Silvey -295 vs. Lucas Bahdi +225, lightweight
• Shadashiah Green -2500 vs. Natasha Spence +1100, super middleweight
• Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. -280 vs. Uriah Hall +215, cruiserweight

Prediction

While Perry is a legitimately dangerous opponent, it should be kept in mind that Paul and his team have been extremely careful in their fight selection. There is clearly a reason Paul thinks Perry is a good opponent in a Tyson fight. Maybe it’s the size difference, maybe it’s that they look at Perry’s reckless face-fighting style and see an opponent who would be easy to pick apart and blow away with a big right hand. Whatever the case, Paul is not taking whatever small risk he has of losing in the Tyson fight by fighting someone he is afraid to fight.

Perry’s strength is being exaggerated a bit at this point. The last 10 fights of his MMA career have all been without Perry being knocked out. Although Perry has three consecutive TKO wins in BKFC, they have been primarily due to his bare-handed punches, which have caused a lot of damage to his face. In his most recent bout, Perry dropped 40-year-old Thiago Alves near the one-minute mark of the opening round and while Alves was able to beat the count, the referee deemed him unfit to continue, so the bout was called off.

Against a much bigger man wearing much bigger gloves, it’s hard to see Perry getting a stoppage. And Perry’s style is such that he hits his opponents much more than he hits them. It’s not hard to see Paul safely boxing to a decision win, especially considering how boxing gloves would control Perry’s power and allow Paul to block the punches Perry is accustomed to throwing in bare-knuckle and MMA. Instead of a decision, we’re guessing Paul will get the stoppage, finding a good spot to come in with some big power shots as Perry tries to move forward and apply his aggression. Pick: Jake Paul via TKO6

Who will win Jake Paul vs. Mike Perry, and which prop is a must-back? Visit SportsLine to see Brandon Wise’s best bets for Saturday, all from the CBS Combat Sports expert who has Jake Paul KOing Ryan Borland in the first round at +200, and find out.