NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model loving Chargers, Bills in Week 1, 2024

Ten road teams won in Week 1 last season, the most for any opening week since 2007. According to Week 1 NFL odds, it would be shocking if away teams had similar success in the opening week of the 2024 NFL season. The home team is favored in 14 of the 16 games, ranging from the Browns with a two-point edge over the Cowboys to the Bengals with a nine-point edge over the Patriots. Should last year’s opening week results impact your Week 1 NFL bets and NFL picks?

Two different NFL games where the home team is the underdog are the Texans vs. Colts (+1.5) and Vikings vs. Giants (+1). Those games also have two of the smallest Week 1 NFL spreads. Which teams should get your NFL picks against the spread and who should you back to win outright in the opening week of the 2024 NFL season? All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks right now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has generated over $7,000 in gains for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season with an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks dating back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model has placed in the top 10 in straight-up NFL picks on NFLPickWatch four of the last six years and beaten more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’Em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way ahead of the game.

Now, it’s turned its focus to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line and over-under, and locked picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 1 NFL Predictions

We can tell you that one of the model’s strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3.5) cover the spread at home against the Raiders. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has had tremendous success against the Raiders throughout his career. He has thrown 15 passing touchdowns against just two interceptions while playing against the Raiders, while also rushing for three scores.

The Chargers also bolstered their defense this offseason by bringing in veteran Bud Dupree, who has 53 career sacks. He’ll join a loaded defensive line that includes Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, two of the league’s most destructive defenders. The Raiders have gotten off to slow starts the past few years, winning just one of their last six games played in December. SportsLine’s model has that trend likely to continue in Week 1 as the Chargers cover the spread nearly 60% of the time in Jim Harbaugh’s debut as Los Angeles’ head coach. See which other teams to pick here.

Another Week 1 NFL prediction: Bills (-5.5) cover at home against the Cardinals. Buffalo enters this season as balanced offensively as it has been in the Josh Allen era, due to the fact that not everything falls on Allen. RB James Cook emerged in the second half of last year and finished with over 1,500 scrimmage yards for the season. He should thrive against arguably the league’s worst run defense as the Cardinals allowed the most rushing yards and fifth-most rushing scores a year ago.

On the other hand, the Bills’ opportunistic defense forced 30 takeaways last season, the third-most in the NFL. This is a bad matchup for Kyler Murray, who has 28 total fumbles in his last 29 games, as well as 18 interceptions in that span. With that, the model is calling for a blowout win, with Buffalo winning by double digits and covering as a 6.5-point favorite in nearly 70% of simulations. See which other teams it picks here.

How to make the Week 1 NFL selections

The model has also determined who wins and covers every other game in the Week 1 NFL schedule and just recently revealed four teams that win outright more than 70% of the time. You can find every pick for every game only on SportsLine.

So which NFL picks can you choose with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in right now? Check out the NFL odds below, then head over to SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $7,000, and find out.

Week 1 NFL Betting Odds, Lines, Spreads

Get Week 1 NFL Picks at SportsLine

Thursday, September 5

Ravens vs. Chiefs (-3, 46.5)

Friday, September 6

Packers vs. Eagles (-2.5, 48.5) – in Brazil

Sunday, September 8

Steelers vs. Falcons (-3, 41.5)

Cardinals vs. Bills (-5.5, 48)

Titans vs. Bears (-4.5, 43.5)

Patriots vs. Bengals (-9, 42.5)

Texans vs. Colts (+1.5, 48.5)

Jaguars vs. Dolphins (-3.5, 49)

Panthers vs. Saints (-4, 40)

Vikings vs. Giants (+1, 41.5)

Raiders vs. Chargers (-3.5, 42.5)

Broncos vs. Seahawks (-5, 42)

Cowboys vs. Browns (-2, 43)

Commanders vs. Buccaneers (-3, 41.5)

Rams vs. Lions (-3.5, 51)

Monday, September 9

Jets vs. 49ers (-4, 44)