NFL Week 3 picks, odds, best bets: NFC South continues to move ahead while Eagles, Chiefs face questions
We have some new and great options for you this week. Here’s the deal: I give my top five ATS choices, and I’ll sound smart doing so, but make sure you make the exact opposite bet of what I say and become a millionaire.
I’m glad the Los Angeles Chargers helped me last week. I even doubled down on live betting LAC -20.5. But of course the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans couldn’t cover the spread. Then somehow the Malik Willis-led Green Bay Packers beat the Indianapolis Colts, while the Dallas Cowboys were swept at home.
Take a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit goes to the CBS Sports research team.
All NFL odds courtesy of SportsLine Consensus,
Top five picks ATS record: 1-8-1
Overall ATS record: 12-18-2
Straight record: 18-14
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo)
If we were making a power rankings list for two weeks, the Saints would be No. 1. They came off a stunning win over the Cowboys in which the Saints scored six touchdowns in their first six drives. New Orleans has scored 91 points so far, which is tied for the fourth-most points scored in a team’s first two games in NFL history.
Klint Kubiak has made this offense look great, as the Saints have scored on 16 of 21 drives this season, while Alvin Kamara has clearly returned to form. His 290 yards from scrimmage lead the NFL, as do his five total touchdowns. Now, they have to return home and host a team that is coming off an embarrassing loss on a short week.
Can the Eagles come back after Saquon Barkley literally dropped the ball while the defense allowed Kirk Cousins to move down the field with no issues on the play? Jalen Hurts will be without AJ Brown again, so if the Saints defense can stop him as a runner, they will move to 3-0.
Selection: Saint -2.5
Estimated Score: Saints 28-23
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Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo)
I guess I’m counting on the NFC South too much? Let’s take another home favorite in the Buccaneers, who destroyed the Washington Commanders in Week 1, then upset the Detroit Lions in Week 2 thanks to a strong performance by the defense.
Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has struggled in his first few NFL games, completing just 6 of 24 passes and throwing three interceptions on throws of more than 10 air yards. The Broncos’ offense is averaging 13 points per game and just 263 yards of total offense per contest. Both are in the bottom four in the NFL.
Selection: Buccaneers -6.5
Estimated Score: Buccaneers 24-13
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Skylar Thompson will take over under center in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa in Week 3. Despite having Tua at quarterback, Miami has really struggled out of the gate. Now the Dolphins will have to travel all over the country with a backup quarterback.
Not only do we have to worry about how Thompson will perform against Mike McDonald’s defense, but the Dolphins secondary must be ready for the challenge of Seattle’s receiving corps. Last week, DK Metcalf and Jaxson Smith-Njigba became the first duo in Seahawks history to record 10 receptions and 100 receiving yards in a win over the New England Patriots.
Selection: Seahawks -4.5
Estimated Score: Seahawks 23–17
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Fubo)
The Chiefs are 2-0, but they don’t look like they’ve played their best ball. In fact, the Chiefs are tied for having the worst point differential among undefeated teams (+8). Isaiah Likely’s fingernail was too long for the end zone in Week 1, and then Kansas City got the benefit of a pass interference penalty that led to a win over the Cincinnati Bengals last Sunday.
The Chiefs have the longest active winning streak in the NFL, starting last year with eight consecutive wins. I think that could end this week in prime time in Atlanta. Cousins’ game-winning drive in Philly is something that can inspire a team, and the Falcons defense played very well, too. In Week 3, Patrick Mahomes will face the No. 7 pass defense statistically in the NFL, and will be without Isiah Pacheco to control the ground game. The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine prime-time games, so give me the points.
Selection: Falcons +3.5
Estimated Score: Falcons 24-23
Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN, Fubo)
I expected the Bills to take a step back this season, but you can’t argue with how this team has started the year. They came back after falling behind by double digits against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1, then dominated the Dolphins in a short Week 2. In Week 3, Josh Allen and company return home to host a struggling team in the Jaguars.
The 0-2 Jags have scored 30 points in two weeks. That’s their fewest points in two weeks since 2014. Trevor Lawrence has failed to keep up with his playmakers, and he has lost seven consecutive starters dating back to last year. His 51% completion percentage ranks No. 30 in the NFL — behind Daniel Jones, Bryce Young and Caleb Williams — and his 382 passing yards rank No. 21. Is it in Buffalo where they can get back on track? Where the Bills have won 11 of their last 12 home games? I’m not sure about that.
Selection: Bill -5
Estimated Score: Bill 27-21
