Predicting first win for college football’s 12 winless teams: Oh, Temple, Noles will wait until October?

More than 40 teams in college football are undefeated after three weeks of football. The most exclusive club is on the other side of the tracks: There are only 12 teams that haven’t won a single game through Week 4.

Florida State Gets the most attention (with good reason)But there are a few other surprises. Jacksonville State was picked No. 3 in the preseason Conference USA poll. Miami-Ohio was No. 1 in the MAC. Frequent Sun Belt contender Troy lost a heartbreaker to Nevada in Week 1. Now, that’s the only thing keeping the Wolfpack off the list.

While plenty of teams struggle, going winless is still a relative rarity in college football. First, it requires a schedule that doesn’t have a single scheduled win. Most of those in the bottom half of the FBS get a dull FCS opponent to guarantee at least one W. Additionally, the rest of the conference has to be far enough above the team that they can’t punch through. Despite all of these factors, luck needs to be headed in the wrong direction.

In 2015, Kansas and UCF both went 0-12. Since then, only two programs have reached the dangerous mark outside of a pandemic: 2017 UTEP and 2018 Akron. Most of the 12 teams left on the board will win. Here’s where they could end up.

Florida State

Disadvantages: Georgia Tech (24-21), Boston College (28-13), Memphis (20-12)

Upcoming Events: at California, SMU, Clemson

The Seminoles are the only power conference team left without a win, but they’re hard to comprehend on their own. While the losses against Georgia Tech and Memphis were close, the schedule gets even tougher from here on out. California is a must-win game this week, but the Golden Bears have plenty on their plate after a 3-0 start and won’t come to Tallahassee intimidated; they beat Auburn on the road two weeks ago.

The first road game in the ACC conference against SMU will not be easy. Playing Clemson next week could be a bloody battle. The worst part about being below average in the ACC is that it means every single team on the schedule is capable of beating you.

choose: at Duke (October 18)

Jacksonville State

Disadvantages: Coastal Carolina (55-27), Louisville (49-14), Eastern Michigan (37-34)

Upcoming Events: at Southern Miss, Kennesaw State, New Mexico State

The Gamecocks started the year with real expectations in Conference USA, but the first few weeks were a struggle, including a double-overtime loss against Eastern Michigan. Fortunately, there are clear skies ahead with four straight game wins. JSU was picked third in the preseason CUSA poll and everything is still on the table.

choose: Southern Miss (September 21)

Kennesaw State

Disadvantages: UTSA (28-16), Louisiana (34-10), San Jose State (31-10)

Upcoming Events: UT-Martin, Jacksonville State, Middle Tennessee

The Owls are the only program in their first year of transitioning from FCS to FBS and are behind the eight-ball as a result. A close game against UTSA in the opener looks a little less impressive as the weeks go by, but KSU should deal with an FCS opponent.

choose: UT-Martin (September 28)

Disadvantages: Pittsburgh (55-24), St. Francis PA (23-17), Tennessee (71-0)

Upcoming Events: at Penn State, Eastern Michigan, Ball State

It’s incredibly difficult to find competitive games for Kent State, which is currently ranked last in the rankings. CBS Sports 134 RankingTo give them some credit, the Golden Flashes did stop a running clock in their 71-0 loss to Tennessee; bless them for loving football so much. Otherwise, a winless season is very possible.

choose: Akron (November 19)

Massachusetts

Disadvantages: Eastern Michigan (28-14), Toledo (38-23), Buffalo (34-3)

Upcoming Events: in central Connecticut, Miami (Ohio), northern Illinois

UMass showed some fight early in the season against future conference opponents EMU and Toledo, and former Clemson quarterback Taisun Phommachanh gave them some strength under center. More importantly, the Minutemen scheduled two FCS opponents. Smart move.

choose: Central Connecticut (September 21)

Miami (Ohio)

Disadvantages: Northwestern (13-6), Cincinnati (27-16)

Upcoming Events: at Notre Dame, UMass, Toledo

There is one big exception to the no-win teams rule: a strong Group of Five team that likes to cash checks. Miami (Ohio) is probably the best no-win team in America, but has non-conference games scheduled against Northwestern, Cincinnati and Notre Dame. While 0-3 means 0-3, the RedHawks are probably the best no-win team in America, as they were picked No. 1 in the preseason MAC poll. Get over this blowout win, though, and there are plenty of wins ahead.

choose: UMass (September 28)

Disadvantages: Montana State (35-31), Arizona (61-39), Auburn (45-19)

Upcoming games: Fresno State, New Mexico State, Air Force

Spiritually, it doesn’t feel right that the Lobos didn’t win. New Mexico played Montana State, one of the top FCS teams, but gave them a great game. The Lobos scored 39 on Arizona and trailed only 17-13 against Auburn at halftime. Fresno State is another tough test this week, but the next three games — at New Mexico State, Air Force, Utah State — are all winnable. Sophomore quarterback Devon Dampier is one of the funniest players in college football. Bronco Mendenhall’s team won’t be down for long.

choose: New Mexico State (September 28)

Disadvantages: South Carolina (23-19), East Carolina (20-14), Virginia Tech (37-17)

Upcoming games: At Bowling Green, at Coastal Carolina, at Georgia State

All three of Old Dominion’s losses are pretty much a thing of the past. South Carolina was pushed to its limit by the Monarchs in Week 1 and has looked strong since, while East Carolina lost late against Appalachian State. The problem? The rest of Old Dominion’s schedule suddenly looks incredibly tough. The Monarchs will play three consecutive games against likely bowl teams, then return home to face Sun Belt favorite Texas State. A win against Bowling Green this weekend is possible. If ODU loses, the Monarchs could start 0-7.

choose: Georgia Southern (October 24)

Disadvantages: Oklahoma (51-3), Navy (38-11), Coastal Carolina (28-20)

Upcoming Events: at Utah State, Army, UConn

Stan Drayton’s Owls are one of the most disappointing programs in the FBS right now. Temple has only one FBS win since Sept. 2, 2023, and it came against a Navy team the Owls lost to by four touchdowns this season. Utah State comes to town this week, but the Aggies found some spark against Utah last week. The games against Army and UConn looked easy early in the season, but both have certainly looked better than Temple so far. If the Owls advance without a win against Tulsa on Oct. 19, they are very unlikely to win.

choose: nobody

Troy

Disadvantages: Nevada (28-26), Memphis (38-17), Iowa (38-21)

Upcoming games: Florida A&M, ULM, Texas State

The Trojans missed an opportunity in Week 1 and played two top-notch opponents in a row, but a solid special teams performance from Devonte Ross helped bring a little more optimism. Fortunately, Troy didn’t have to wait long for its first win. Florida A&M is a great HBCU power, but has lost all 10 of its FBS matchups since 2015.

choose: Florida A&M (September 21)

UTEP

Disadvantages: Nebraska (40-7), Southern Utah (27-24), Liberty (28-10)

Upcoming Events: Colorado State, Sam Houston, Western Kentucky

Losing a 17-6 halftime lead against Southern Utah in overtime could cost the Miners heavily as there are very few winnable games left on the schedule. UTEP could be double-digit underdogs in the next three games against Colorado State, Sam Houston and Western Kentucky. FIU looks interesting after demolishing Central Michigan and playing FAU well. Playing FCS transitioner Kennesaw State at home on Nov. 9 would at least ensure the program doesn’t go winless in Scottie Walden’s first season, but it’s on the table.

choose: FIU (October 16)

Disadvantages: Arizona State (48-7), Idaho (17-13), BYU (34-14)

Upcoming games: at North Texas, Air Force, San Diego State

The first year of the Jay Sawle era has been inconsistent, but the schedule has been a little tougher than expected after impressive early-season showings against Arizona State and Idaho. Sawle is a former defensive coordinator and his team has defended the run quite well, though, which bodes well for a home game in two weeks against a rebuilding Air Force team. Expect some low scoring, but wins are coming soon.

choose: Air Force (28 September)