Ranking the top 20 MLB free agents of the 2024-25 offseason: Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman and others

Major League Baseball’s regular season is entering its final month. In just a few weeks, most of the league’s front offices will turn their attention to the future and begin planning their offseason strategies. We’re not ready to do that just yet — there are still playoff races to be decided, pennants to be earned, etc. — but we understand that for many readers, it’s time to look ahead.

With that in mind, we at CBS Sports decided to bring the stretch run in by offering an early preview of our annual free-agent rankings. For those new to this endeavor, each winter we rank the top 50 players in a class based on a combination of expected average annual value and their expected impact in the future. Below, we’ve run through a modified version of the exercise, featuring only 20 players instead of 50.

We urge you to take these rankings for what they are — a snapshot in time — because we can guarantee you our offseason rankings will look different than they do. That’s for a few reasons, including better clarity on the status of rookie Sasaki and other players with contract options. By the time those rankings are published, we’ll also have a better idea of ​​how front offices are shaping the class. (Plus, you know, whatever revelations happen over the next month or so of games.)

Now that all the nonsense is out of the way, let’s get to the good stuff.

Did you expect anything else? Soto will enter the market as a 26-year-old on his way to the Hall of Fame. Players who fit this description rarely become free agents; when they do, they get top billing. Soto will emerge with another impressive effort, as he is likely to finish the season with more than 40 home runs and more walks than strikeouts. He is the most reliable offensive force in the majors, having never posted an OPS+ below 140 — that too despite debuting as a teenager. In a perfect world, he would be better than a scratch defender. Let’s get serious: If a team shirks away from him for Soto’s glove, they will never be serious bidders anyway. He will get paid, and he will get paid something fierce this winter. He deserves it.

Burnes has had poor starts against several potential playoff opponents recently, including the Astros, Guardians and Red Sox. We’re not too concerned about that; the more interesting, potentially ominous development we have our eye on relates to the declining effectiveness of his cutter: Opponents have both their best average (.263) and highest contact rate (over 83%) against his cutter since he made it his primary pitch in 2021. This explains why Burnes’ strikeout rate has fallen for the fourth consecutive season, making him more reliant on contact management. Burnes is still an above-average starter with a great track record, don’t get us wrong, but the aforementioned trend is something teams will need to assess before handing him a long-term deal this winter.

It will be interesting to see how teams value Bregman. He’s far from his best slugging years, so we assume they’ll value him for what he is: an efficient contact and on-base merchant with a good glove and the potential to hit around 20 home runs (we don’t think he’ll find a ballpark fit like Houston, meaning the 25-plus homer threshold may be beyond his reach). Interestingly, he’s had a weird season, hitting the ball hard more often than usual while also walking far less frequently and struggling upward after a poor start.

It’s hard for a player to fly under the radar given Fried’s track record, but he seems to be managing to do just that. He’s a two-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove Award winner who could go into the offseason with a career ERA+ above 140. Yet he feels overlooked, perhaps due to the limitations of his workload. He’s only started more than 30 games twice, and once has he pitched more than six innings in a season. Fortunately for Fried, he’s pitching in an era where teams are more comfortable with such numbers. In turn, we suspect he’ll feel pretty comfortable with the stats he’ll get this winter.

We’re pairing Snell and Chapman together because they have a few things in common, including their current employer and the likelihood that they’ll opt out of their contracts this winter and seek better opportunities. Both are highly successful players, but have some flaws in their games. Still, we suspect both will have a better free-agent experience than they had last offseason.

Adams hasn’t returned to the heights he reached early in his career, when he posted a 122 OPS+ in the 2020-21 season. Still, he’s done enough this year to erase the sour taste left from last season. Adams will be the best power-hitting shortstop available this offseason, having averaged over 25 home runs in 162 games for his career. He’s also putting up career bests in both walk and strikeout rate. His defensive metrics have taken a hit, but it’s reasonable to think he has at least a few more years left to play, up to six. Add to that the fact that Adams is close to 30, and he should have multiple long-term offers this winter.

This may seem exaggerated to some, as Kim never played in an All-Star Game, hit 20 home runs, or batted over .260. Boil his game down to its roots and you’ll find a great defensive shortstop with years of park-adjusted, league-average hitting to his name. There’s not a single point in baseball history where his profile has been out of style. Oh, and he won’t be celebrating his 30th birthday for another trip around the sun. Let’s not underestimate Kim’s offensive game either. He’s not a slugger or anything like that, yet he rarely fouls off or chases, and he’s capable of both squaring the ball up and stealing bases with volume and efficiency. You’ll never find much black ink on his Baseball Reference page, but he’s a legitimate starter on a good team.

Alonso is going to be a somewhat polarizing free agent. There’s no denying his elite power or his impressive track record of above-average hitting. However, that’s the ceiling of his game, and it doesn’t help that he’s a true first baseman approaching his 30-year-old season. Front offices consider that profile fungible unless it’s attached to a generational batter like Miguel Cabrera or Albert Pujols. We don’t think front offices view Alonso at that level. Thus, if we had to guess, Alonso’s deal would likely be somewhere around Paul Goldschmidt’s contract (five years and $130 million).

Flaherty will enter free agency for the second consecutive season. Call it a guess, but we think he’ll do better than the one-year, $14 million deal he signed last winter. More seriously: This is a better class for pitchers than hitters — to the extent that teams have plenty of options if they want to prioritize a starter who offers less volatility than the one Flaherty has brought in recent years.

We know front-office folks who believe the Rule 5 Draft no longer serves a purpose and should be retired. Santander’s rise since the Orioles selected him from the Guardians is a nice counter-factual. He’s developed into a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat, a switch-hitter with both power and contact chops. He offers no defensive value and he’ll be 30 before free agency opens, but otherwise, there’s a lot to like here.

Scherzer has told reporters that, despite battling multiple injuries last year, he wants to pitch until he’s 40. He should get some lucrative one-year offers from contenders looking for their missing piece of the puzzle.

One of the biggest wild cards on the market. Bieber pitched brilliantly twice before the season ended, but underwent elbow surgery. Will a team give him a multi-year offer, or will the 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner have to settle for a cushion contract?

Until not too long ago, Eovaldi was always known as a poor performer. Since then, he has put things together to the point where it seems he could remain an above-average starter for a few more years. Eovaldi’s contributions to two World Series-winning teams could attract teams looking for a starter of a certain level. I don’t know anything,

15. Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Dodgers

Hernandez has been a vital part of the Dodgers’ lineup, but we suspect teams will be hesitant to give him a long-term deal. The same criticisms from last winter still apply — he’s not happy; he’s a negative defender; and so on — and he’s now nearing his 32nd birthday. We’ll also add that as productive as Hernandez has been, his OPS+ may be his second-lowest in the last five years.

Re-read what we wrote about Alonso and right-handed hitting first basemen … then consider that Walker is nearly four years older than Alonso. He deserves a nice raise, but it’s worth being realistic about how the market values ​​his type.

Holmes has missed more saves this season than the previous two combined, which has generated a lot of discussion. Our Mike Axisa recently explained why this information is somewhat misleading. We think teams will overlook it in order to sign Holmes this winter.

Severino has bounced back from last year’s poor showing as a different pitcher than he was earlier in his career. He’s now a fastball-sinker-sweeper, not a fastball-slider-changeup, and he’s made more controlled contact in exchange for strikeouts. It’s worked for him so far, which suggests some team will be willing to agree to a multi-year deal.

Manaea’s return to the rotation has been impressive throughout the season. The sweeper he used last year has been a difference-maker, giving him a pitch that is effective at making both bats and barrels miss. The Mets have let him stretch his legs since the beginning of July, with him logging seven or more innings in six of his last 10 attempts.

Kikuchi has long been an enigma who has better things to say than results. The changes he has made since joining the Astros — ditching his curveball in favor of more sliders and changeups — have his arrow pointing up. We’ll see if it stays that way.