SEC college football selections, Week 4 odds: Oklahoma, Tennessee start conference play with a bang
The SEC only has four conference games this week, but we have some great games lined up — and one of them could lead to a knockout punch for a coach on the hot seat.
Florida’s Billy Napier will try to prolong his stay on the coaching carousel’s death row with a win over Mississippi State in what might be the weakest SEC matchup on paper, but is also the most intriguing because of the stakes.
We almost pulled off our first upset in the SEC last week, but LSU came back at South Carolina, winning 36-33 on the back of mistakes, blunders, and excellent quarterback play from Garrett Nussmeier and Lanoris Sellers. Still, it’s easier to feel better about LSU’s loss to USC in Week 1 than it was after the win. Other USC in Week 3. I have a lot more questions than answers about Brian Kelly’s handling of the defense, and whether the Tigers will continue to be inconsistent week to week.
This Week 3 was tough for my picks as there were some mild upsets and Ole Miss and Tennessee already outperformed expectations offensively. I was incredulous after counting heavily on Vanderbilt and Mississippi State to go 4-9 – and cover for the win! I even slipped into The Swamp, thinking the Gators would beat the Aggies without Connor Wiegman at quarterback. Live and learn.
It’s a new week and we’re only one game behind .500 this year. It’s time to change that.
The most interesting game
The scene in Norman, Oklahoma is going to encapsulate everything that makes college football great. Not only is Oklahoma starting its new era in the SEC, but it’s doing so against a top-five team and its favorite son, Tennessee coach Josh Heupel. The stories will stir passion from deep in the Sooners’ hearts.
“I expect them to be super cool with us out of respect for me and our program,” Heupel joked this week.
Heupel led the Sooners to their return to the big time in 1999, when coach Bob Stoops and the quarterback led the program to a BCS national title in January 2020. Heupel later spent nine years as an assistant coach in Norman before being fired by Stoops in 2014, leaving a trail of bad blood that has since been cleaned up but left a stain on Heupel and Oklahoma.
Let’s rank this week’s most interesting games, from OU’s SEC opener to Arch Manning’s first start and South Carolina’s lack of action at the M.A.C.I.
- No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Oklahoma
- Arkansas and Auburn
- UCLA at No. 16 LSU
- Bowling Green, No. 25 Texas A&M
- Florida vs. Mississippi State
- Vanderbilt, over No. 7 Missouri
- ULM over No. 1 Texas
- Ohio and Kentucky
- Georgia Southern vs. No. 5 Ole Miss
- Akron vs. South Carolina
just a moment
Before we move on to this week’s SEC selections, some interesting tidbits from the CBS Sports research team:
- Oklahoma is trailing by 7.5 points against sixth-seeded Tennessee, its largest margin as a home underdog since 1999, when Tennessee coach Josh Heupel was the Sooners’ quarterback against Texas A&M.
- The Sooners are 2-1 in their first game in the new conference.
- Texas’ Archie Manning is set to become the first in the Manning family (Archie, Peyton and Eli) to start a game for a team ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll.
- Jackson Dart of Ole Miss is the third FBS quarterback since 2000 to complete 80% of his passes for over 1,000 yards in the first three games of the season.
- Florida has lost seven consecutive games to FBS teams for the first time since 1979.
- Mississippi State, which hosts Florida, has lost six of its last seven FBS games.
The choice of
straight up: 32-6 | against proliferation: 16-17
*Selections use SportsLine’s preliminary consensus odds
Florida vs. Mississippi State
Florida hasn’t shown much excitement with its head coach, and Mississippi State was a disappointment last week, losing to Toledo at home. The Gators have more talent, especially on the defensive line, and should win no matter what Billy Napier decides to do at quarterback. MSU’s hope is to slow down the running game and force Graham Mertz and/or DJ Lagway to throw down the field. Florida has lost six consecutive games with Mertz as its starting quarterback, but that changed on Saturday in Starkville, Mississippi. Pick: Florida -4.5
Ohio and Kentucky
No matter the opponent, Kentucky’s offense has struggled, so even after the win against Georgia, don’t think the Wildcats will be able to outplay Ohio on offense. Quarterback Brock Vandagriff hasn’t been able to provide the response we expected in Lexington, Kentucky, passing for just 313 yards in three games. Coach Mark Stoops warned this week that Ohio’s defense is “very, very tough,” so we’ll follow his lead and root for Ohio to keep it within two touchdowns. Pick: Ohio -19
Arkansas and Auburn
Arkansas can move the ball, and most importantly, the Razorbacks are one of the nation’s best at running the ball. The Hogs have rushed for more than 230 yards in all three games and lead the nation in rushing touchdowns (15). Auburn struggled last week, allowing an average of 6 yards per carry against New Mexico. The question is whether Arkansas can protect the ball, something it struggled with — and why it lost at Oklahoma State in Week 2. Auburn is 1-4 against FBS teams at home under Hugh Freeze, and redshirt freshman quarterback Hank Brown is making his first start in the SEC. Pick: Arkansas +3.5
UCLA at No. 16 LSU
LSU hasn’t been great on defense all season, so prepare accordingly. Here’s looking like LSU will do better in Death Valley, especially on the hottest afternoons. UCLA was beaten at home by Indiana last week, and fans are already wondering if promoting DeShaun Foster to head coach was the right decision in the offseason. The Tigers should score a lot, which will be enough to counter (or complement). whatever They do it on defense. The Tigers won their 12th consecutive home game and covered. Pick: LSU -17.5
Vanderbilt, over No. 7 Missouri
Vanderbilt burned us with an unthinkable loss to Georgia State in Atlanta last week, but we’re still with Diego Pavia and crew, who scored 15 points in 75 seconds and took a late lead before losing last week. (Stop scheduling road games in the Sun Belt, okay?). Missouri didn’t necessarily look shaky in its first test of the season, though nationally ranked Boston College gave the Tigers a bit of a scare with its running quarterback, Thomas Castellanos, keeping the game alive and throwing downfield. Mizzou has plenty of weapons but Pavia must keep the game alive with his legs and score enough to keep it within three touchdowns. Pick: Vanderbilt -20.5
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Oklahoma
Forget the storylines for a moment and let’s look at what’s happening on the field. It’s no secret that Oklahoma’s offense has been inconsistent over the past three weeks, including a close contest against Houston and some upsets against Tulane last week. Jackson Arnold is a great quarterback, but is he too reliant on Dion Burke? The Sooners are 110th in third-down conversions. Tennessee’s offense is the best in the country (on paper), having put up 1,918 yards in three weeks, the most in three games since Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson led Texas Tech and Louisville, respectively. Oklahoma’s defense can slow down anyone, but the main thing here is Tennessee’s defensive line, which was spectacular against NC State two weeks ago. If the Sooners struggle to hit three touchdowns, the Vols will win big. Pick: Tennessee -7.5
Akron vs. South Carolina
That selection depends on the availability of quarterback Lanorris Sellers. Shane Beamer said Tuesday that Sellers assured him he would be “ready to play” on Saturday. If so, the Gamecocks will move on. If not, expect more of what you saw in the fourth quarter against LSU last week, when coaches were afraid to allow Robby Ashford to throw the ball — and when he did, he usually missed the target. Pick: South Carolina -27.5
Bowling Green, No. 25 Texas A&M
Watch out for the MAC, because it’s back. The nation’s best Group of Five conference has terrorized the Power Four. Northern Illinois beat then-No. 5 Notre Dame in Week 2 and Toledo beat Mississippi State last week. Bowling Green pushed Penn State to its limit and lost in Week 2 and came back from a bye week to beat Texas A&M on the road. Can the MAC pull off an upset three weeks in a row? Probably not. Texas A&M has improved the offense with backup Marcel Reed as the starter. The quarterback threw for 261 yards and added a dynamic similar to what Mike Elko had when Duke was running with Riley Leonard last season. Pick: Bowling Green -24.5
Georgia Southern vs. No. 5 Ole Miss
Ole Miss returns to preseason action with another cupcake. The Rebels were impressive in their first road game, winning 40-6 at Wake Forest, and lit up the scoreboard with points against weak competition (plus-159 is the most in three games in school history). Ole Miss has won five consecutive non-conference home games by 25 points or more. Pick: Ole Miss -31
ULM over No. 1 Texas
We don’t have to wait until 2025, because Arch Manning Madness has already arrived. Quinn Ewers is out with an abdominal strain, clearing the way for Manning to stun us after his pitch-perfect debut last week, when he scored five touchdowns, including a 67-yard run, the longest by a Texas QB since Vince Young (2005). Give ULM some respect, though. First-year coach Bryant Vincent beat his old program, UAB, after the Warhawks were the laughingstock of the Sun Belt last season. ULM is much more competitive, but it would still be a showcase for Manning. Select: ULM +48
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