SEC expert picks for 2024: Most overrated and underrated teams, projected order of finish, bold predictions

With legendary coach Nick Saban gone, Georgia facing one of its toughest schedules in years and teams like Missouri and Ole Miss yearning to build off successful seasons, the SEC is set to level up in 2024. Oklahoma and Texas are in, the old divisional structure is out and the group of teams that see themselves as College Football Playoff contenders is much larger.

The league is particularly strong from a quarterback standpoint, even after the departure of Jaden Daniels, who led LSU to the Heisman Trophy last season. New Alabama coach Kellen DeBoer is a QB guru, and he has a great guy to work with in Jalen Milroe. Familiar names like Carson Beck (Georgia) and Jackson Dart (Ole Miss) are also back to lead teams ranked in the top-six of the AP Top 25 preseason poll.

Meanwhile, first-year players like Garrett Nussmeier (LSU), Niko Iamalewa (Tennessee) and Jackson Arnold (Oklahoma) are also poised for successful seasons as they take charge of teams ranked in the Top 16.

Michigan snapped the SEC’s streak of four consecutive national titles with a win over Washington last season, the first national title game since 2014 that did not feature an SEC team. It was a rare down moment for the conference. Now, with nine of the preseason top-20 teams coming from the SEC entering the 2024 season, the league is poised to return to the top of college football.

Let’s see as our CBS Sports college football experts provide their picks and predictions for the SEC ahead of the 2024 season.

Most Overrated Team

oklahomaOklahoma is adding two new coordinators and a new quarterback while facing a challenging league schedule during its first season in the SEC. Six of OU’s eight league opponents are ranked in the top 15 of the AP Top 25 poll, and projected SEC bottom-feeders Vanderbilt and Mississippi State are both absent from the slate. OU has enough talent to keep up with anyone, but it will likely be a transition season as the Sooners adjust to a new league, new quarterback and new coordinators. — David Cobb (Jerry Palm)

LSUThe Tigers lost their top passer, top two rushers, top two receivers and offensive coordinator, who finished outside the top 10 last season. Defensive coordinator Blake Baker will help improve the defense, but flipping playcallers on both sides of the ball and relying on several unproven options to take on starring roles makes it hard to see LSU seriously landing in the College Football Playoff discussion, as a preseason No. 13 ranking might assume. A road slate featuring Texas A&M, Florida and Arkansas could also present some unexpected landmines. — Sheehan Jayaraja (Will Backus)

missouri: I’ve heard a lot of talk this offseason about Missouri being a playoff contender, and they start the season ranked 11th in the AP Top 25. That all seems a bit excessive. The Tigers had a great season last year, winning 11, but that included four one-score wins against Middle Tennessee, Kansas State, Memphis and Florida, all at home. They also had the benefit of a favorable road schedule that included Vanderbilt and Arkansas. While the schedule isn’t too difficult, I still expect the Tigers to fall a bit behind. — Tom Fornelli (Richard Johnson)

Ole Miss: My problem here is less with preseason projections or even the Rebels’ win total in the SEC — I have Lane Kiffin’s group putting up more than 9.5 wins in the regular season — but more with how Ole Miss is rated nationally. Starting at No. 6 in national polls, Ole Miss has entered the discussion of being a top-five team capable of winning a national championship. But up to this point, the best Ole Miss teams have blown out lesser opponents but have come up short in games against Alabama or, last season, Georgia. If we’re going to talk about the Rebels as a top-five team, I’d like to see the next step first. — Chip Patterson

Golden brown color: Maybe I listen to SEC radio too much, but Auburn is the most hyped, overrated program since Kirby Smart made Georgia relevant again. I keep hearing about the Tigers’ receiving corps, but the same quarterback is throwing to them (Payton Thorne). Auburn ranked last in the SEC in passing last season. The running back room is loaded, but 6-6 is written all over this team. And we still don’t know if Hugh Freeze is the coach to lead this program out of the woods. Freeze is the fourth coach since Gus Malzahn was driven out of town in 2020. In a stronger-than-ever SEC, the Tigers’ road to relevance just got a lot more potholes. — Dennis Dodd

most underrated team

Texas A&MThere’s a negative image swirling around Texas A&M after the whole Jimbo Fisher incident, which is understandable. It was a very public, messy situation that was followed by some prolific players leaving the program. But the Aggies proved the rebound hire right. As a new head coach, Mike Elko won nine games in his first year at Duke — mind you, that was one fewer win than Duke had in the three years prior to his hiring. He managed to win seven games in 2023 with a revolving door at quarterback and a long list of nagging injuries. So, yes, he should do very well with a Texas A&M program where he inherits one of the SEC’s best young signal callers in Connor Wiegeman and a roster still hamstrung by some solid recruiting from the Fisher era. Don’t be surprised if he matches Fisher’s top regular season win total (eight) in Year 1. — Backus (Patterson, Cobb)

Tennessee: Do teams with the best offensive player and defensive player in their league do well? The Volunteers have James Pierce Jr. on defense, and he could be the No. 1 pick in the draft next spring. They also have Niko Imalewa at QB, who was a five-star recruit and has the potential to be one of the best signal-callers in the country. Imalewa’s talent coupled with Josh Heupel’s offense and a stout defense is a very attractive combination. This is a Tennessee team that will not only compete for a playoff berth but could also be in line for a first-round bye. — Fornelli (Dodd)

missouri: This is a response to those who think the Tigers don’t deserve their preseason ranking, not that the ranking is too low. Mizzou is coming off a historic season in which it won 11 games including demolishing what’s left of Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. This year’s Tigers team will still be pretty good given a relatively soft SEC schedule. Georgia, Texas and Ole Miss are not, and while there are road trips to Alabama and Texas A&M, those games should be the only times this season they take the field as underdogs. Another 10-2 season wouldn’t be surprising at all. — Palm (Jayaraja)

FloridaThe most popular talking point in preseason analysis this summer has been that Florida has the toughest schedule in college football history. But… what if it No? In a sport where every year the top 15 teams finish with no rankings, it’s likely we’ll no more consider Florida’s schedule a murderer’s row in December than we will in September. Florida will also improve enough at the line of scrimmage to be dangerous at least in its most difficult stretch. They’re not a 10-win team, but the Gators aren’t a five-win team either. — Johnson

Bold predictions

• Dennis Dodd: Ole Miss will break the school record for combined wins (39) in four seasons. Last year’s Rebels tied the school record with 29 wins in a three-year span – last set in 1962.
• Tom Fornelli: The biggest upset of the 2024 season is that the SEC only got three teams in the playoff. It turns out that when you add two new programs capable of winning national titles to a league already full of programs competing for national titles, it evens out and the top contenders lose a little more often.
• Chip PattersonThere will be a five-way tie for third place, with Alabama, Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU and Tennessee all finishing with 6-2 conference records. It’s only thanks to the huge 16-team league that we get such a disparity in schedules, but the SEC’s top tier is set to flirt with double-digit wins thanks to their respective draws.
• Shehan Jayarajah: The expanded level of parity in the SEC with the addition of Texas and Oklahoma means that every single team in the conference will finish with multiple regular-season losses. Even champion Georgia will lose two of three road games against Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss. Ultimately, this won’t affect CFP chances at all.
• Richard Johnson: Trevor Etienne will lead the nation in rushing behind one of the five best offensive lines in the country, getting an increased number of carries as a workhorse back. Not even Oklahoma State star Ollie Gordon II will be better than UGA’s RB1.
• David Cobb: The SEC will send at least two quarterbacks from this group to New York as Heisman Trophy finalists — Quinn Evers (Texas), Carson Beck (Georgia), Jackson Dart (Ole Miss), Jalen Milroe (Alabama), Garrett Nussmeier (LSU), Niko Iamalewa (Tennessee) and Jackson Arnold (Oklahoma).
• Jerry Palm: The rankings will favor the SEC as usual, and four teams will make the College Football Playoff, including two conference members that made last year’s playoff. Of course, one will get a bye, but the other three will host first-round games. That means four of the conference’s teams will finish in the CFP’s top eight.
• Will Backus: The SEC produces at least five teams that each have 10 regular-season wins. That would create serious headaches for the College Football Playoff committee and some serious uproar from the schools that are left on the cutting room floor. Don’t be surprised if this is the catalyst for (inevitable) further expansion.

Approximate order of termination by the SEC

SEC Champion

Georgia: I made it a habit to never bet against Nick Saban when he was coaching. Kirby Smart has earned the benefit of the doubt. The Bulldogs recruit at a level unmatched by any program, but Smart and his staff don’t get as much credit for developing that talent when it actually gets to campus. Smart’s defense will never be lower than top-10 nationally, and now Georgia does it with a potential first-round pick at quarterback in Carson Beck, a dynamic running back room anchored by an electric playmaker in Trevor Etienne, a wide receiver room with six or seven legitimate players and an offensive line that could win the Joe Moore Award. Georgia’s schedule is really tough, but maybe that won’t matter. — Backus (Dodd, Fornelli, Patterson, Jeyarajah, Johnson, Palm)

Texas: Texas faces a manageable schedule in its first season as part of the SEC. While the Longhorns will have to play Georgia, that game is at home on Oct. 19. Preseason top 15 teams from the AP Top 25 such as Alabama, Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU and Tennessee are absent from each slate. Meanwhile, the Longhorns have the benefit of playing presumed doormats Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. With continuity at the quarterback and head coach/coordinator spots, the Longhorns are prepared to rifle through this slate and handle the SEC Championship Game test against an opponent that will face a much tougher slate. — Cobb