The Lakers are betting on the end of the LeBron James era in hopes of a blockbuster they probably can’t afford

The Los Angeles Lakers made a rare conservative choice on Thursday when they decided to allow the trade deadline to pass without making any moves. As disappointing as it may be for the fans (and hourglass-tweeting LeBron James), it seemed a sensible approach on paper.

The Lakers entered the deadline with a 27–25 record. They were 20th in offense and 14th in defense, hardly the peripheral position of a true contender. Last year’s Lakers didn’t look the same in February, but the improvements were relatively simple. Get James and Anthony Davis back on the court and take Russell Westbrook out of it. A healthy Laker team with a better-fitting supporting cast advanced to the Western Conference Finals in a friendly bracket.

This time the improvements were not as pronounced.

While James and Davis are largely healthy, the Lakers had no big expiring contracts to hang onto or any obvious negatives to remove from the rotation. They are simply a team that has played mediocre basketball and needs meaningful changes to fix it. In a trade market that saw little movement even among high-level role players, those changes did not seem available. So the Lakers did not force the issue. He decided to wait.

But what are they waiting for? It is somewhat like a pipe dream. Bleacher Report’s Chris Haynes It was reported before the deadline that the Lakers were planning to wait until the summer to make their move. At that time, the Stepien Rule restriction that limited them to offering only one first-round pick in a trade during the season would be eased. The Lakers will have access to three first-round picks and three first-round swaps to trade. According to Haynes’ report, the Lakers will try to trade for a superstar at that time. Our own Bill Reiter Already reported one possible name: Donovan Mitchell.

Effectively, this is the strategy the Lakers have employed throughout their history. Although there are occasional gaps like the five years between Magic Johnson and Shaquille O’Neal or the three years between Kobe Bryant and James, the Lakers have gone from superstar to superstar over the past six decades. This is where the Lakers’ extraordinaryness comes from. If all the Lakers know is superstar acquisition, why do they think acquiring a superstar will be particularly difficult?

The reality here is much more complex. In the modern NBA, three selections in the first round are not that many. When the offseason arrives, the Nets will have eight first-round picks available for trade. The Knicks will have nine. The Spurs, Jazz and Thunder will all be in double figures. In a pure bidding war, the Lakers have no chance against any of these teams.

Which begs the question why the Lakers think they have a real chance at a player like Mitchell. He has been associated with New York for years. Even if he leaves the Cavaliers team that has set the NBA on fire for the past month, wouldn’t his hometown Knicks or Nets, where there is more to trade, make more sense?

The obvious answer here is yes, but when your entire franchise history suggests you should go for it anyway, it’s not hard to see why the Lakers might want to try to do it. Of course, the NBA has changed a lot since the Lakers accumulated most of the old stars. Even as recently as 2018, it was quite common for players to change teams via free agency. The Lakers can free up cap space and bet on their market and history to do the rest. That’s how they found James.

But in the “extend now, trade later” era of NBA history that currently exists, player preference matters less and less in these matters than it once did. If Damian Lillard, a 33-year-old with a tough long-term contract, couldn’t get to the Miami Heat as per his plan, what hope would a young star have of making his way to the Lakers when his team has been seriously depleted? Placement?

A slightly more plausible path for the Lakers would be to pursue a star with a few warts. The Clippers acquired James Harden at a price that now looks like a bargain because they had no other market. The Mavericks got Kyrie Irving at a similar discount, though their market was a little wider. Harden’s defensive and playoff concerns limited his group of supporters. As were Irving’s off-court issues.

Will such a player be available this offseason? are likely to be. Trae Young is at the forefront in this regard. He’s an even more limited defender than Harden, and he really only makes sense in a situation in which he can play an extremely ball-dominant style. He, like James and Davis, is represented by Klutch Sports. The Lakers have been linked to him in the past. If the Lakers are interested in building around two big men, Minnesota’s luxury tax issues will ultimately force the Timberwolves to consider the future of Karl-Anthony Towns. Of course, if they go into a long playoff run, they’ll likely have to pay to keep the team together.

Still, the Lakers have little control over the star trade market. The stars have to align with them. What if New York teams and some other asset collectors decide they’re going to do whatever it takes to add All-Stars this summer? The Lakers are out of luck. They don’t have the assets to compete. Even if the right player does become available, it only takes one other interested party to knock the Lakers out of the race. The point guard-needy Spurs make a lot of sense for Young. Minnesota would likely prefer win-now assets for Towns anyway.

This is the danger of the star-centric approach being taken by the Lakers. Just because they’ve always been able to field these types of players doesn’t mean they’re automatically equipped to do so again. Of course, it’s also worth asking whether they should even do this.

The Lakers won their 2020 championship with two stars and a great supporting cast. With three first-round picks in the summer, they can refill the team around James and Davis and potentially try to recreate that formula. Would this be possible as James is entering his 40s? It is too early to tell and will obviously depend on which players are available and which are not. There is no easy way out, no one-size-fits-all solution. Getting the Lakers back into the championship picture will require significant changes and a more thoughtful overall roster.

This is why the “let’s catch a star and wait” approach is so confusing. This is not an attempt to address the real flaws plaguing this team at this point. This is an attempt to solve contemporary problems with old solutions. The Lakers can no longer rely on getting a star just by being the Lakers.