UFC 305 Predictions – Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya: Fight Card, Odds, Prelims, Preview, Expert Picks

Israel Adesanya aims to become a three-time middleweight champion UFC 305 when he takes on defending champion Dricus du Plessis. “DDP” will make the first defense of the title he won against Sean Strickland in his most recent bout, while Adesanya looks to recover from losing the belt to Strickland in a shocking upset at UFC 293.

Adesanya was scheduled to defend the belt against Du Plessis at UFC 293, but Du Plessis was not ready to compete after defeating Robert Whittaker in a title eliminator two months earlier. That opened the door for Strickland to turn things around at 185 pounds.

Now, Adesanya and Du Plessis are facing off after a rivalry that unfortunately included some ugly moments in which the two African-born fighters debated who was the “real African”. Adesanya was born in Nigeria before his family moved to New Zealand, while Du Plessis is South African-born and still fights out of the country.

The undercard has some interesting bouts with several stars from the region. An Australia vs. New Zealand fight is set for the co-main event, when Steve Erceg takes on Kai-Kara France at flyweight. Erceg missed out on a title opportunity earlier this year – a title many were surprised to receive. Meanwhile, Kara-France could end a two-fight losing streak after also missing out on a shot at the interim title in 2023. Plus, rising lightweight contender Mateusz Gamrot is set for a tough challenge against veteran Dan Hooker. And more explosive action is expected earlier on the card, when heavyweights Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Tai Tuivasa take on each other.

With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds before getting to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 305 fight card, odds

• Israel Adesanya -120 vs. Dricus du Plessis (c) +100, Middleweight title
• Steve Erceg -160 vs. Kai Kara-France +135, flyweight
• Mateusz Gamrot -350 vs. Dan Hooker +275, lightweight
• Jairzinho Rozenstruik -220 vs. Tai Tuivasa +180, heavyweight
• Carlos Prates -350 vs. Li Jingliang +275, welterweight
• Junior Tafa -130 vs. Walter Walker +110, heavyweight
• Josh Culibao -140 vs. Ricardo Ramos +120, Featherweight
• Casey O’Neil vs. Luana Santos, women’s flyweight
• Jack Jenkins -700 vs. Herbert Burns +500, featherweight
• Tom Nolan -1200 vs. Alex Reyes +750, Lightweight
• Song Kenan -175 vs. Ricky Glenn +145, welterweight
• Stewart Nichol -240 vs. Jesus Aguilar +200, flyweight

With such a huge main event, the team at CBS Sports got down to making predictions and picks for the main card. Your selectors are: Brent Brookhouse (combat game writer), Brian Campbell (combat game writer), Shakil Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer), and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 305 picks, predictions

Du Plessis vs. Adesanya

Campbell: If the 35-year-old Adesanya proves unable to hurt Du Plessis and actively forces him to step aside, it could be a difficult night for the former champion. Not only is Adesanya dealing with the demands of age and an 11-month layoff that is the longest of his UFC career, he must also deal with the mental burden of losing two of his last three fights (which has led many to question his title shot). Adesanya was stopped by Alex Pereira and was outpointed by Sean Strickland after being dropped in the opening round. Given that Du Plessis, a small-stakes underdog, can take the fight to the ground using his heavier body as a towering middleweight, there’s enough reason to believe he’ll be a big man.

Brookhouse: It’s perfectly reasonable to think Adesanya should win, and possibly win easily. If this was the Adesanya of a few years ago, I’d consider this a lock, while hoping this fight would be similar to Adesanya’s humiliation of Paulo Costa. Like Costa, Du Plessis is also a heavy-pressing fighter, although Du Plessis applies his aggression a little more effectively. But it’s hard to change the image of Adesanya, who looked like a man who couldn’t figure out how to pull the trigger in his last outing against Sean Strickland. Time catches up with exceptionally talented strikers and this could have been the fight in which Adesanya went through a transformation similar to Roy Jones Jr. in the last stretch of his career. Unless I’m given reason to believe this was a one-time performance and not the new normal for Adesanya, I’m leaning so much in favor of Du Plessis forcing his way to defend his title.

Mahjuri: This fight is tough to assess: Du Plessis performed at least as expected, while Adesanya fared very poorly against big underdog Sean Strickland. Adesanya’s great movement and counterstriking have suppressed other middleweight veterans like Yoel Romero and Paulo Costa. Adesanya’s familiarity with Du Plessis’ build is beneficial to him, even if the champion’s willingness to walk through fire to corner opponents makes me think this will be a quick fight or an ugly one. I think Adesanya’s movement will allow him to steal crucial rounds or set him up for a knockout, but don’t be surprised if Du Plessis makes the challenger uncomfortable with ragdoll takedowns and power punches. I’d cautiously take Adesanya on the decision, which will likely be one last attempt as middleweight champion.

Erceg vs. Kara-France

Campbell: In his last fight, Erceg came as close as he could get to winning the UFC’s flyweight title, but lost the five-round bout – in just his fourth UFC appearance – after making a late tactical mistake. The Perth native returns just three months later to fight New Zealand’s Kara-France, who is coming off a two-fight losing streak. But at 31 years old, and knowing that a third consecutive loss would be devastating to his title hopes, don’t underestimate this slight underdog’s chances of getting back into real title contention. Remember, Kara-France was set to defeat former champion Brandon Moreno in their interim title fight in 2022 two fights ago, but was stopped by a brutal body kick in Round 3 (after which the rising contender lost by split decision to Amir Albazi). Kara-France has three times the UFC experience as Erceg and should be motivated to finish aggressively to keep things out of the judges’ hands.

Brookhouse: Kara-France is certainly a good fighter. But Erceg showed a lot of that in his loss to Alexandre Pantoja and he could have left that fight as the flyweight champion if not for the disastrous decision to go for a takedown in the fifth round, which actually turned the deciding round in Pantoja’s favor. Hopefully Erceg will have learned from his mistake and outpointed Kara-France in an entertaining fight and taken the decision.

Mahjuri: This fight looks like two flyweight contenders going in opposite directions. Erceg opened many people’s eyes with his fiery loss to Alexander Pantoja in a UFC title fight that came sooner than anyone expected. I think he has learned valuable lessons that will benefit him against the flyweight elite. Erceg’s technical striking and strong submission game should be enough to outsmart Kara-France, who is likely to lose by KO, submission or decision. Kara-France’s power is always a threat, but Erceg is too smart to be caught off guard. Give me Erceg by decision.

Gamrot vs. Hooker

Brookhouse: As much as I think Hooker is the lively dog ​​here, Gamrot’s wrestling game will probably be too much. He averages over 5.25 takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon time. No matter how good Hooker’s takedown defense is, it’s not good enough to stop Gamrot often. If Gamrot tries to prove a point by forcing a stand-up fight, he may be prone to upsets with Hooker’s length in the striking game, which could tip things in his favor. Still, Gamrot should win this fight more often than he loses it.

Mahjuri: Hooker knows exactly how Gamrot will handle this fight, but I’m not sure there’s anything Hooker can do to stop him. Gamrot is one of the best pure grapplers in any UFC weight class. The Polish fighter consistently strings together takedowns, averaging about three a round. Hooker is a brutal striker. Naturally, he has diligently trained his takedown defense to support his offensive goals. Gamrot lacks the top control and submission skills that led Islam Makhachev to a dominant win over Hooker in 2021, but Gamrot has the tools to neutralize Hooker’s game. Gamrot finds himself in trouble from time to time, but he should be able to recover from it and restore the grappling advantage.

UFC 305: Who wins Du Plessis vs. Adesanya, and how does each bout really end? Visit SportsLine now to get the full scoop on UFC Fight Night, all from the MMA expert who made over $1,200 in profit on UFC main-card picks, and learn more.