What’s really behind the NFL’s offensive struggles the past two weeks and how can they be fixed?
The biggest story of the first two weeks of the 2024 NFL season is that offense has taken a huge step back. In a league that has been dominated by offense and has seen a surge in scoring in recent seasons, defenses are fighting back — and succeeding in their attempts to do so.
Teams are averaging just 21.4 points per game so far, and that’s the result of a downward trend that has seen scoring fall from a peak of 24.8 per game in 2020 to an average of just over 23 per game over the three-year period. Total yardage is down as well, with teams averaging 318.5 yards per game compared to 331.6 last year, a peak of 359 in 2020, and an average of just over 340 over the three-year period. And it’s not just about pace: Yards per play are down, as are points per drive. Defense is actually winning the battle right now. (At least relatively.)
Much of the offensive backslide is due to the rise in “two-high” coverages, in which split safeties cover the deep part of the field to try to eliminate big plays and instead force offenses to move the ball downfield. And that’s definitely a factor. You can see in True Media’s data that teams are playing cover-2, cover-4 and cover-6 significantly more often than in the recent past.
| 2019 | 3.3% | 29.7% | 10.4% | 31.6% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 26.8% |
| 2020 | 3.9% | 25.4% | 10.6% | 32.8% | 11.6% | 7.0% | 29.2% |
| 2021 | 4.1% | 22.5% | 11.4% | 34.2% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 31.1% |
| 2022 | 3.5% | 19.8% | 11.4% | 36.5% | 12.8% | 8.3% | 32.5% |
| 2023 | 4.1% | 19.0% | 10.5% | 35.6% | 14.2% | 9.5% | 34.2% |
| 2024 | 3.9% | 20.9% | 10.7% | 33.7% | 15.4% | 8.5% | 34.6% |
But more important than the rise of these coverages, and the light boxes (i.e. six or fewer defenders in the box) that accompany them, is the effectiveness of these strategies compared to years past.
It wasn’t that long ago that NFL offenses were just as successful against two-high coverage as they were against single-high. In 2019, they were nearly as successful against Cover-2 as Cover-1, nearly as successful against Cover-4 as Cover-3, and more successful against Cover-6 (which combines Cover-2 and Cover-4) than any other coverage.
As you can see here, measured per dropback by True Media’s EPA (expected points added):
| 2019 | -0.01 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| 2020 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| 2021 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| 2022 | -0.14 | 0.04 | -0.05 | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| 2023 | -0.01 | 0.03 | -0.03 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.01 | -0.01 |
| 2024 | 0.03 | -0.03 | 0.06 | -0.03 | -0.08 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
What is causing the disparity nowadays? Offenses are reacting differently to two-high coverage than they did a few years ago. Basically, defenses are challenging opposing offenses to throw deep on those plays, and offenses are Taking the bait,
The average depth of throw against two-high coverage in 2020 was 7.8 yards. That has dropped to just 6.6 yards in 2024. Offenses threw the ball an average of 1.9 yards short of the first down marker against two-high in 2020. This year, they are throwing the ball an average of 3.2 yards short of the sticks against the same coverage. In 2020, 11.6% of passes against two-high went at least 20 yards in the air. This season, that number has dropped to just 9%.
These aren’t total numbers. These are just against two-high. Teams are getting worse at attacking these coverages because they’re surrendering to the will of the defense. Completion percentages against two-high are up slightly. Drop rates on those throws are down. Off-target throw rates are down. “Take what the defense gives” is a common principle on offense, and teams are taking it to heart — but it’s not working in their favor.
And here’s another thing: Teams throwing deep against two-high safety looks are having more success than ever. On throws of 15-plus air yards against two-highs so far this season, NFL teams have a 50% success rate. Quarterbacks have a 19.9% off-target throw rate, 8.1% touchdown rate, 5.1% interception rate and 35.3% explosive-play rate, while receivers have dropped just 2.9% of their throws. Teams are gaining an average of 13.3 yards per attempt and 0.65 EPA per dropback. All of these numbers are the best of any season since at least 2019.
And that’s just in the passing game. The way teams react when the opposing team plays light box is also different. In effect, the offensive team is complying with the defense’s wishes – and doing so with less success than before.
Once again, we can look to True Media for proof.
| 2019 | 53.2% | 33.8% | -0.04 | 1.94 |
| 2020 | 54.0% | 34.5% | -0.06 | 2.06 |
| 2021 | 54.6% | 34.2% | -0.03 | 1.87 |
| 2022 | 54.1% | 35.2% | -0.01 | 2.04 |
| 2023 | 57.8% | 36.3% | -0.06 | 1.80 |
| 2024 | 57.7% | 40.3% | -0.06 | 1.41 |
Light-box rates have increased, although only slightly. The rate at which teams are calling run plays against those looks has increased significantly, indicating that teams think it’s a good idea to run more often when presented with a light box. It’s intuitive thinking, but it’s not working for them. EPA per rush attempt is lower, and yards before contact per attempt is much lower. Even worse, 13.3% of early down runs in the light box in 2020 were stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage. That figure has now jumped to 16.4%. Not only are they gaining fewer yards, but despite being presented with “favorable” run looks, they’re getting stuck more often.
There are other factors at play here besides just two-highs and how teams react. One is that, as Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points noted, many of the “golden age” quarterbacks of recent years have retired, fallen off or both. It wasn’t that long ago when players like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and Tony Romo were still in the league, or Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers were some of the best players in the game. All of those players are either no longer on the field or are no longer their former selves due to injury or age-related reasons.
There’s also the fact that the new-age quarterbacks who have replaced them play a different style. Many of these young quarterbacks have higher sack-to-pressure rates when under pressure, as well as higher scramble rates when under pressure. Both of these factors result in fewer pass attempts overall. Scrambles are good plays, but they don’t typically produce as many yards or as many touchdowns as passes do.
Offenses also don’t yet rely enough on some of the strategies we know can generate success against these kinds of defenses: pre-snap and at-the-snap motion, play-action, screens. You only need to look at teams like the Vikings and Saints to see the kinds of things they can do for you. The best offenses in the NFL right now are either led by physically freak elite quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, etc.) or run a Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay-style offense with lots of motion and play action and other bells and whistles that make defenses struggle (49ers, Vikings, Saints, Dolphins, Texans, etc.). Of course, there are exceptions, but the exceptions often prove the rule. Teams should focus more on these strategies, and quickly, in order to counteract what defenses are doing to them.
But more than that, they should probably stop following the defense’s strategies. The opposing team knows that challenging you to run and throw short passes is a winning strategy for them, relative to what’s been happening lately. While it may seem like you should just take “easy” yards, it turns out it’s actually pretty hard to make a living off of attacking like that. Not giving in to their bait and attacking them aggressively is the better way to go.
