Which bad MLB team from 2024 has the best chance of being good in 2025? Ranking the contenders to replace it

Major League Baseball’s regular season is nearing its final month, which means we’re getting closer and closer to the postseason. This will be the third year that MLB’s playoffs will feature a 12-team field (the 2020 season also had a much larger postseason due to the COVID-19 pandemic), and if there’s one thing we’ve learned from the first two years, it’s that a big field is great at creating chaos.

If there’s one other thing we’ve learned about the new format, it’s that the extra berths have made it easier for clubs to turn their fortunes around. Consider that seven teams have reached the playoffs in the past two years, while they consistently missed out the previous season:

Depending on what happens in the final month, a few more teams could make the cut this October — possibly some combination of the Guardians, Royals, Mets and Giants. (The Red Sox and Cardinals also have a chance to play on the outside.) If even just three of these teams make it, it would validate the idea that today’s losers have a real chance to become tomorrow’s playoff participants.

With that in mind, we here at CBS Sports wanted to test our crystal ball to find out which clubs could make the leap next season.

Below, we rank the nine teams that are guaranteed to finish below .500 in 2024, in order of their perceived chances of making the 2025 postseason. At the risk of stating the obvious, there’s a huge offseason between now and then, and a lot of things can change during that time. There’s no better example than the Royals of how a team can make the most of the winter to boost itself and its postseason chances. Take this exercise for what it is and what it’s intended to be: a mere snapshot in time.

Now on to the good stuff.

Tier 1: Unlikely

9. Chicago White Sox

If you’re on pace to post the most losses in a single season in modern MLB history, chances are you’re not going to improve enough to make it to the next postseason. Still, we expect the White Sox to do better next season. Part of the reason for this is that they can’t possibly be worse, and part of the reason for this is that they have some interesting young talent either present or on the way. We expect shortstop Colson Montgomery and lefties Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith to play roles during the 2025 season, helping to bolster the talent level of a historically poor team.

8. Miami Marlins

General manager Peter Bendix still has some veteran players he can turn to between now and next Opening Day. These include slugger Jake Berger, outfielder Jesús Sánchez and pitchers Sandy Alcántara and Jesús Luzardo. Will Bendix actually trade most or all of them? We’ll find out soon. No one should be surprised if the Marlins continue to dismantle themselves as part of a long-term effort to rebuild and modernize.

7. Oakland Athletics

The Athletics are going to go a few different places in the next few years, but we don’t think the postseason will be one of them, at least not in 2025. There simply isn’t enough talent in this organization, and it’s hard to imagine owner John Fisher will commit money any time between now and the team’s move to Las Vegas. (And even then, we doubt he’s going to command an above-average salary.)

Tier 2: Unlikely, but they’ll probably try

6. Los Angeles Angels

we will give Newly Expanded So much about Perry Minasian: We’re sure he’s going to try to compete. That could mean adding some veteran players this winter, and it could mean getting first-round pick Christian Moore into the majors within a year of his draft date. We don’t think the end result will get the Angels into the playoffs — they have a pretty bad farm system and too many holes to realistically patch in one winter — but we’ll take our hat off to him anytime an executive chooses to try instead of executing a nihilistic tank job.

5. Colorado Rockies

You never know what the Rockies will do or not do during an offseason; they operate in their own little corner of reality and we love them for it. Still, we think their chances of turning in a surprisingly competent year are better than they have been in a while. We write this even though they are clearly one of the worst teams in the league for a few reasons. First, the Rockies have a number of interesting players on their active roster — Brenton Doyle is probably the best outfielder no one talks about, and they could have a good infield. They also have some potential players in recent first-round pick right-hander Chase Dolander and third baseman/outfielder Charlie Condon. We don’t believe the Rockies will really be able to get things in place before next year, but once again, we find ourselves a little higher on this group than we should be.

4. Toronto Blue Jays

We’re hedging our bets here because we think these Blue Jays have more room for instability than any other team on this list. They resisted the urge to trade either Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette at the deadline, but both are heading into their final seasons before free agency. Toronto’s front office has also had some disappointing drafts recently, leaving them without incoming help. That means their competitive aspirations are likely to hinge on two components: 1) what they do with Guerrero and Bichette, and 2) how creative they can be in adding contributors in place of/alongside those two foundational pieces.

Tier 3: Real Contenders

3. Pittsburgh Pirates

As we’ve detailed before, the Pirates have great players in Paul Skeens and Jared Jones who have a great one-two punch. The scary thing is that they have even more great young pitching talent, including Bubba Chandler, Mike Burroughs and Braxton Ashcraft. Ideally, the Pirates should spend the winter strengthening their lineup. We’re sure general manager Ben Cherington wants to do that; we’re not sure owner Bob Nutting will let him. That’s the only obstacle keeping the Pirates from becoming the most obvious team on the rise in the majors.

2. Washington Nationals

The Nationals don’t have anyone as influential or well-known as Skeens (who, really?), but we think Mike Rizzo is likely to spend some of the Lerner family’s wealth. Plus, they have emerging slugger James Wood and a group of players who have proven they are solid or better MLB contributors. Some names to know include C.J. Abrams, Jake Irvin and Jacob Young. The Nationals also have right-hander Cade Cavalli who is back from injury, as well as outfielder Dylan Cruz and third baseman Brady House who are eager to play in the Minors. The National League East is going to be a tough division — with the Braves, Phillies and Mets — but we think the Nationals have a chance to make a jump in 2025 if they make some changes this winter.

1. Texas Rangers

The defending champions have had a disappointing season thanks to a cruel combination of injuries and poor performance. There’s every chance they could lose several notable contributing players to free agency, including Max Scherzer and Nathan Eovaldi, and there’s obviously no guarantee that young players Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter will develop as desired. Still, we think they’ll bounce back next year for a few reasons, starting with the amount of star-caliber talent on this roster. Add to that how they should get full (or full, anyway) seasons from Jacob deGrom, Josh Jung, and Tyler Mahle, and you can see the possibilities for a comeback attempt. It helps that general manager Chris Young has shown he’s more interested in winning games than looking smart, and the owner has given him the ability to spend if it means holding another championship parade. There’s a long way to go before Opening Day 2025, but we think the Rangers will find themselves in great shape again by this time next year.